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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat Jan 12th, 2023

Selma Country Club reports it has been destroyed. pic I saw shows very significant damage. Gonna be bad
 
Selma storm's signature just got super nasty again.
1673549425266.png
 
Tornado Emergency now.
...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR AUTAUGA COUNTY...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CST FOR
NORTHEASTERN AUTAUGA COUNTY...

At 1251 PM CST, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located
near Vida Junction, or 12 miles northwest of Prattville, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

TORNADO EMERGENCY for AUTAUGA COUNTY. This is a PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Deadly tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Deatsville, Marbury, Vida Junction and New Prospect.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the
closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
Click to expand...
 
That's likely a high-end tornado.
deatsville_50.png
 
 
Where are these kind of cells on the days when SPC highlighted them 6 days out and puts out 15% hatched moderate risks and PDS watches? Not faulting them because the modeled setups supported it on those days in recent months, but it's clear something is still lacking in the whole weather enterprises' ability to make that crucial distinction between those setups that actually produce high-end significant tornadoes and those that don't. Even having a discrete storm mode in an apparently supportive (according to high-resolution CAM short-range forecast soundings) environment isn't always enough.
 
Bassfield all over again, storm specific MD for this cell.

SUMMARY...A STRONG TO INTENSE TORNADO (~EF3) IS LIKELY ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND AFTER TORNADO DEMISE, A WIND-DAMAGE RISK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EAST-CENTRAL AL.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Where are these kind of cells on the days when SPC is putting out 15% hatched moderate risks and PDS watches? Not faulting them because the modeled setups supported it on those days in recent months, but it's clear something is still lacking in the whole weather enterprises' ability to make that crucial distinction between those setups that actually produce high-end significant tornadoes and those that don't. Even having a discrete storm mode in an apparently supportive (according to high-resolution CAM short-range forecast soundings) environment isn't always enough.
Click to expand...
I understand what you're saying but I think it may be forecaster error today. It was pretty clear this morning before 1630z update that we were dealing with a higher-end tornado threat than expected (also referenced from previous comments here) and they kinda downplayed it in their outlook. They're the best in the world but I think this was forecaster error.
 
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