Severe WX Severe Weather Threat Jan 12th, 2023

pohnpei

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No. Let's run the list.

Bold - almost certainly accurate (or at least indisputably tracked over 75 miles)
Italics - almost certainly inaccurate
Normal - not sure

Hazlehurst, MS F4 (Mar 29, 1976, 126.5 miles)
Ulysses, KS F2 (May 18, 1977, 117.2 miles)
Wadena, MN F2 (Aug 26, 1977, 110.4 miles)
La Pryor, TX F1 (May 15, 1980, 99.8 miles)
Muscatine, IA F0 (Apr 4, 1981, 103.5 miles)

Gruver, TX-Beaver, OK F4 (Mar 19, 1982, 88 miles)
Delta, IA F4 (Jun 7, 1984, 134 miles)
Raleigh, NC F4 (Nov 28, 1988, 83 miles)
Lawrence, NE F4 (Mar 13, 1990, 131 miles)
Albion, IL F4 (June 1, 1990, 106 miles)

Brandon, MS F4 (Nov 22, 1992, 126 miles)
Wilson, NC F3 (Nov 23, 1992, 160 miles)
Aurora, NE F3 (May 8, 1993, 75 miles)
Mount Ayr, IA F3 (Apr 11, 2001, 76.5 miles)
Martinsville-Indianapolis, IN F3 (Sep 20, 2002, 112 miles)
Stockton, MO F3 (May 4, 2003, 86 miles)

New Boston, TX-Idabel, OK F2 (May 15, 2003, 78.3 miles)
Caruthersville, MO F3 (Apr 2, 2006, 77 miles)
Atkins-Clinton, AR EF4 (Feb 5, 2008, 123.5 miles)

Butler-Roberta, GA EF2 (Feb 17, 2008, 75.6 miles)
Picher, OK-Neosho, MO EF4 (May 10, 2008, 75.5 miles)
Yazoo City, MS EF4 (Apr 24, 2010, 149 miles)
Hackleburg-Phil Campbell, AL EF5 (Apr 27, 2011, 132 miles (a bit of that is indisputably a separate EF3, but the main EF5 still most likely tracked over 90 miles))
Cordova, AL EF4 (Apr 27, 2011, 127.8 miles)
Tuscaloosa-Birmingham, AL EF4/EF5 (Apr 27, 2011, 80.7 miles (May have actually been longer than official track)
Ohatchee, AL EF4/EF5 (Apr 27, 2011, 97.3 miles)
Enterprise, MS EF4 (Apr 27, 2011, 122 miles)
West Liberty, KY EF3/EF4(?) (Mar 2, 2012, 85 miles)
Holly Springs, MS EF4/EF5 (Dec 23, 2015, 75.1 miles)
Thornapple, WI EF3 (May 16, 2017, 82.5 miles)
Collins, MS EF3 (Apr 12, 2020, 83.2 miles)
Brent, AL EF3 (Mar 25, 2021, 79.7 miles)
Monette, AR EF4 (Dec 10, 2021, 81.2 miles)
Mayfield, KY EF4/EF5 (Dec 10, 2021, 166.4 miles)
Dresden, TN EF3/EF4 (Dec 10, 2021, 122.9 miles)
longest path in January since 1975

hackleburg was 102miles
Yazoo City was about 102miles based on radar and satellite analysis

Holly Springs around 58miles
tuscaloosa likely around 97 miles
 
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The old Kingston tornado has finally got a public summary with several mentions that the tornado may have been somewhat stronger than actually rated due to lack of sufficient indicators. Remains a mid range ef3 with winds of 150mph
 

pohnpei

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"In the three mile stretch of
most severe damage from County Road 43 to County Road 42, wind
speeds reached at least 150 mph. Based on the damage scene and
contextual evidence, it is plausible that winds were stronger.
However, with only manufactured homes in the path, there appear to
be no damage indicators that will allow a higher rating."
"Several vehicles were picked up and thrown, and one pickup truck had its cab separated from the bed. From this area to the northeast to County Rd 42, the tornado caused massive tree damage and what appeared to be stands of debarked trees along Autauga Creek."
"At this location, at least three manufactured homes were obliterated with their frames thrown up to 100 yards. A pickup truck was sent airborne and landed 120 yards to the northeast, where a shallow crater was formed by its impact."

image-105.png image-170.png
 

TH2002

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The more I think about this outbreak, the more I realize it was essentially as close to a carbon copy of 3/25/2021 as you can get. Not as widespread or as many tornadoes as some other outbreaks but a higher number of significant tornadoes, the two longest tracked (and probable most violent) tornadoes from each outbreak had nearly identical path lengths (79.66 miles for the Sawyerville EF3 on 3/25 vs. 76.7 miles for the Kingston EF3 on 1/12) both outbreaks had the same death toll, and everything right down to the Atlanta metro being struck again...

The main differences are that this outbreak happened in January instead of March, and 3/25 was anticipated while this outbreak pretty much snuck up on everyone at the last minute.
 
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The more I think about this outbreak, the more I realize it was essentially as close to a carbon copy of 3/25/2021 as you can get. Not as widespread or as many tornadoes as some other outbreaks but a higher number of significant tornadoes, the two longest tracked (and probable most violent) tornadoes from each outbreak had nearly identical path lengths (79.66 miles for the Sawyerville EF3 on 3/25 vs. 76.7 miles for the Kingston EF3 on 1/12) both outbreaks had the same death toll, and everything right down to the Atlanta metro being struck again...

The main differences are that this outbreak happened in January instead of March, and 3/25 was anticipated while this outbreak pretty much snuck up on everyone at the last minute.
And 3/25 had an official EF4.
 
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I’m just gonna say….if nws Atlanta hasn’t made any mistakes…then measuring out the width of the Griffen ef3’s damage polygon…at peak width it’s very nearly 2 miles wide…I highly doubt that’s accurate…it’s likely a mistake while mapping…but if it isn’t, that’s probably georgia’s widest tornado…specially since they haven’t actually given us an official width yet
 

cyelle21

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I have a question. Why didn’t they issue a tornado emergency for Selma? Or did I miss it?


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They definitely issued a tornado emergency for Selma. I work at Old Cahawba Park and all my Selma friends were texting me telling me to take cover, but then the track shifted in a more northward direction. If it hadn't been for the tornado emergency, there would be a lot of fatalities in Selma. Schools were warned enough in advance to get the students to a safe place.
 
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They definitely issued a tornado emergency for Selma. I work at Old Cahawba Park and all my Selma friends were texting me telling me to take cover, but then the track shifted in a more northward direction. If it hadn't been for the tornado emergency, there would be a lot of fatalities in Selma. Schools were warned enough in advance to get the students to a safe place.
I highly doubt that….very visible tornado that wasn’t that strong…slow moving enough to be reacted too…as seen by the damage even if there wasn’t a tornado emergency I highly doubt there would have been fatalities…it’s not 1925 anymore that’s for sure….
 
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Uh…the outbreak is now 9 tornadic fatalities. An ef2 that dropped after the experiment ef3 apparently killed two people according to its track on the dat
 

keithGA

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FFC report on the Griffin EF3.

..Pike/Spalding/Henry County Tornado...

Rating: EF3
Estimated Peak Wind: 150 mph
Path Length /statute/: 31.9 miles
Path Width /maximum/: TBD
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 18

Start Date: 01/12/2023
Start Time: 4:11 PM EST
Start Location: 1 W Hollonville / Pike County / GA
Start Lat/Lon: 33.1643 / -84.4861

End Date: 01/12/2023
End Time: 4:44 PM EST
End Location: 3 SW Fincherville / Henry County / GA
End Lat/Lon: 33.3740 / -84.0014

Survey Summary:

Per radar data, areal surveys and ground surveys it has been
determined that there were 3 tornadoes on the ground
simultaneously in southwest Spalding and Northwestern Pike
Counties. The tornadoes were part of a larger mesocyclone which
can be traced west all the way back to the Selma Alabama tornado.
This particular tornado would become the dominant circulation
which impacted Griffin and much of Spalding County and Southern
Henry County. The tornado first touched down in Northwest Pike
County along HWY 362 west of Irish Hill Drive where a few trees
were snapped and uprooted and quickly increased in intensity to
EF1 as it crossed Kings Bridge Road, Huff Creek Rd and Scott Road
where numerous trees were snapped and uprooted. As the storm
crossed Blanton Mill Road more severe damage was noted both on
the
ground and areal survey and it was determined that EF2 damage was
present in the area around Nunnally Rd and Bethany Road where
widespread snapping of trees occurred and a few structures were
severely damaged. The storm continued ENE crossing into Spalding
County southwest of Williamson Road where EF2 damage was noted.
As
the storm passed Rover-Zetella Rd it was noted on radar that the
merging of circulations began to occur with the tornado which
formed briefly in SW Spalding county. It was near this point the
tornado and the wind damage was noted as widespread spanning
nearly 2 miles across with very strong inflow winds noted to the
south near Rover Rd and Rover-Zetella Rds. It was at this point
the tornado reached peak intensity of 145-150 mph and several
homes were completely destroyed along Kendall Drive. 2 homes in
particular were noted to be completely destroyed down to the
foundation however further inspection of the homes revealed that
the walls were not anchored fully anchored into the concrete thus
a higher rating could not be determined from those homes. The
resident of one of those homes rode out the storm in his bathtub,
however the bathtub and all plumbing fixtures were torn away from
the slab and tossed into the nearby woods. The survivor of the
home was miraculously uninjured and got out to help neighbors.

Further west along Kendall Drive several homes were also
completely destroyed with several others suffering major damage
thus the EF3 rating. Major to severe damage was also noted along
Maloy Road, Hwy 16, areas around Griffin High School, The club at
Shoal Creek and North Pine Hill Road. As the tornado approached
Hwy 19, per UGA faculty, the UGA facility at Dempsey Farm
recorded
a wind speed of 81.1 mph before the anemometer/wind combo
instrument blew off the tower. The tornado continued ENE through
the community of Experiment to the NW of the town of Griffin
crossing HWY 92 where numerous business and homes suffered damage
either from wind or fallen trees consistent with EF0 through EF1
damage. A weather instrument on the south end of the tornado
swath
at the UGA Griffin Campus recorded a 73.9 mph wind gust as the
storm passed by. Damage in the area was consistent with EF0 type
wind damage. The tornado struck a Hobby Lobby building in an
around Experiment St and Hwy 92 which suffered severe damage to
the roof, and exterior walls on the northeast side. Damage to the
building was consistent with EF2 winds of approximately 130 mph.
The tornado continued Northeast through the northside of Griffin
with mostly EF0-EF1 type wind damage. Pockets of more severe
damage were noted along Northside Drive and McIntosh Road
consistent with high end EF1 damage. The tornado continued
northeast crossing Smoak Road and N. McDonough road where it was
noted both on the ground and from the air that the circulation
weakened and the damage become more sporadic in nature
particularly the area from Amelia rd eastward to I75 in southern
Henry County. Once the circulation crossed I75 intensity of the
tornado increased to a mid to high end E1 with damage in the city
of Locust Grove. The tornado crossed LG Griffin Road where it
impacted numerous homes in a subdivision and snapped or uprooted
trees. The storm crossed Stanley K Tanger Road and through
another
neighborhood affecting several homes including some high end EF1
damage. As the storm crossed Hwy 23 numerous trees were snapped
or
uprooted and a new TDS appeared on radar. The tornado continued
NE across Jackson St, Grove Park Drive, Skyland Dr, S. Unity
Grove
Road and S Ola grove road snapping and uprooting trees as well as
causing EF0 or in some cases EF1 damage to homes. The storm
continued ENE snapping and uprooting trees through Peaksville
Road
where it shortly there after become less defined and eventually
merged with the circulation/tornado ongoing to the south in the
Jenkinsburg area. According to Spalding County officials,
approximately 1465 homes were affected in the city of Griffin and
754 were affected in the county with at least 250+ suffering
major
damage or destroyed with assessments still ongoing. Additional
numbers from Pike and Henry county will be added to the total
when
assessments are completed. Additional data will be examined to
determine the maximum width of the tornado. As mentioned in the
summary, the damage area west of Griffin is approximately 2 miles
wide, however, areal survey confirms a wide area of EF0 and EF1
inflow wind damage from the south thus determining a max width
will take more examination of the data.
 
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