The kids were originally sheltering in the hallway until someone called the daycare and told them the tornado was headed for them. Thankfully they were moved to the bathrooms and came away without a scratch. Otherwise there probably would have been injuries as debris fell into the hallway.
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat Jan 12th, 2023
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
The kids were originally sheltering in the hallway until someone called the daycare and told them the tornado was headed for them. Thankfully they were moved to the bathrooms and came away without a scratch. Otherwise there probably would have been injuries as debris fell into the hallway.
A few things noted here
Hardwood debarking to the left
The vehicle made a dent on the ground which means it was once an airborne before hitting the ground
Wow! Ok I definitely understand the EF3 rating now. Very much appropriate for that kind of damage. I don’t understand why I’m just now seeing these photos though? All I saw was the tossed cars and unroofed Hobby Lobby store, which wasn’t the worst damage at all.
ARCC
Member
Any updates on the survey in southern Coosa county? Really interested what damage occurred in that second peak in velocity and when the debris ball on reflectivity peaked.
cincywx
Member
in regards to the second photo …
it appears the slab belongs to this house.
however, street view from 2020 shows no house here, indicating it is a new house. gotta wonder if newer structure = better construction.
tornado examiner
Member
I am also wondering that
Looks like it still may have been under construction though. I’ve seen considerable downgrades for that before.in regards to the second photo …
it appears the slab belongs to this house.
however, street view from 2020 shows no house here, indicating it is a new house. gotta wonder if newer structure = better construction.
Sawmaster
Member
Looking at the pickup, it wasn't just rolled but was thrown onto it''s nose to have that kind of front end damage. The one flattened house certainly wasn't finished but the report says 2 homes were flattened and from the google view we can see the other homes there were occupied. One looks quite new to me (or might just had a new roof) so it was probably 'well built'. Everyone knows about 'hurricane clips' for roof attachment now so I'm sure it had those, but anchoring might have been substandard.
I've been busy and out of touch, but just saw where there were two low-end EF-1's locally from the storm as it came through upstate SC..
I've been busy and out of touch, but just saw where there were two low-end EF-1's locally from the storm as it came through upstate SC..
Sorry for just responding to this, but cell service has been rather spotty around here...still no power. On
Not sure of year built, but one house, the brick walls were still standing...but roof was completely torn off. The other one was completely flattened.
Here is an aerial view of one of the houses
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Sawmaster
Member
The NWS has given this an EF-2 rating which concurs with the damage I can see in the pic.
How a building is constructed has a great bearing on how well it can withstand winds, and thus what rating can be deduced from the damage. Some things like anchor bolts and 'hurricane clips' for roof connection play a very large role here and are usually found only in homes built in the last decade or so. Most older homes from the 70's and back will have severe damage or be destroyed by a mid or high EF-2 mostly for a lack of those two items.
Phil
How a building is constructed has a great bearing on how well it can withstand winds, and thus what rating can be deduced from the damage. Some things like anchor bolts and 'hurricane clips' for roof connection play a very large role here and are usually found only in homes built in the last decade or so. Most older homes from the 70's and back will have severe damage or be destroyed by a mid or high EF-2 mostly for a lack of those two items.
Phil
CheeselandSkies
Member
Any survey results on the tornado that passed near Five Points, AL just before crossing the state line? It was either the rope-out of the Autauga Co. beast or the last quick cycle from that cell before the new one formed just to the south and choked it off, quickly organizing and hitting the south side of La Grange, GA.
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The survey report does not have it listed yet. But, I went through there on the way home from chasing and the tree damage was massive from what I could see at night. Several large thick pines snapped close at the base.
Timhsv
Member
Does anyone know if this is where the fatalities were at?
I Think it is; not for sure though. the fatalities where in the Kingston community in autauga county where there was a lot of manufactured homes so it fits the bill.
Timhsv
Member
OK Uncle JJ,
I guess Ill wait upon BMX to issue their surveys findings this afternoon.
Up to 38 tornado reports in Alabama. Thursdays event now ranks #3 all time in Alabama single event tornado outbreaks. WOW. 
bwalk
Member
Autauga County sheriff David Hill confirms: • 6 fatalities in Autauga County • In the Kingston area, around County Road 40 and County Road 21
Timhsv
Member
OK bwalk, so the video above from Brett Adair was the actual site , Kingstone area? County RD 40 and 21 are in that video above?
bwalk
Member
Here is Victor Gensini's post-mortem discussion on the severity of Thursday's outbreak. He is a met professor at Northern Illinois University. Just his opinion, but he is a sharp guy.
What came together to make deadly Alabama tornado
A La Nina weather pattern, warm moist air coming from an unusually toasty Gulf of Mexico, likely juiced by climate change, and a decades long eastward shift of tornadoes came together to create the unusually early and deadly storm system that hit Alabama Thursday, meteorologists said.
And it may be the start of a bad tornado year, one expert worries.
Early signals, which could change, “indicate the overall pattern remains favorable for an above average tornadic year,” said Northern Illinois University meteorology professor Victor Gensini, who studies tornado patterns.
Gensini said his concern is mostly based on historic patterns and changes in atmospheric conditions that happen when a La Nina, which is a natural cooling of parts of the Pacific that changes weather worldwide, dissipates like it is forecast to do in a few months.
A NEEDED COMBINATION
For tornadoes to form, two big ingredients are needed that often aren’t at high enough levels at the same time: wet stormy instability and wind shear, which is a difference in wind speeds and directions at different altitudes.
At this time of year, “shear is a guarantee,” said Harold Brooks, a senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Severe Storms Laboratory. “What happens is when you get moisture you can have a (storm) system. That is the ingredient that is usually missing this time of year.”
The cold front was following a classic waviness in the jet stream — the atmospheric rivers that move weather systems — seen in La Nina winters, Gensini said. La Nina winters tend to produce more tornadoes and NOAA this week said preliminary numbers show 1,331 tornadoes in 2022, which was a La Nina year, 9% more than average.
“If you’re going to get tornadoes in January, this is the type of setup that’s going to produce them,” Gensini said.
Still without moisture there are no tornadoes.
WARM MOIST AIR
Measurements of moisture in the Alabama air were about twice as high as they should be this time of year and more like May in Tornado Alley, an area stretching from Texas to South Dakota known for being prone to twisters, Gensini said. That’s more than enough for a tornado.
The warm moist air is from the Gulf of Mexico and he said, “that’s a climate change signal.”
Gensini pointed to NOAA measurements of water temperature throughout the Gulf on a computer screen and said: “Look at that number. 70 (21 degrees Celsius). 70. 70. That is ridiculous. That’s way above average" for this time of year. That nearby warm water juiced up the air.
“This is very much a La Nina type of system that you’d expect but is being augmented by abnormally warm Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures,” Gensini said.
The warm humid air hits the cold front and goes up like a ramp and the mixing that creates tornadoes begin, Gensini said.
TORNADOES HITTING EAST
Over the past few decades, a new pattern of tornado activity has emerged.
There are fewer tornadoes in Tornado Alley and more of them east of the Mississippi River in the Southeast, a 2018 study by Gensini and Brooks found.
Tornado activity is increasing most in Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa and parts of Ohio and Michigan. The biggest drop in number of tornadoes is in Texas, but even with the decline, Texas still gets the most tornadoes of any state.
Gensini said his lab is working this summer to try to figure out why that is.
MORE VULNERABILITY
A nasty side effect of tornadoes moving further east is that they are moving from less populated areas to more crowded ones, Brooks and Gensini said.
In Tornado Alley, a tornado can go for miles and miles and not hit anything and anyone and thus not be an issue, Brooks said. But that’s not really the case in the East. People and buildings are in the way.
And the people in the way are more vulnerable.
“There’s more poverty in the Southeast, there’s a greater mobile home population” which is one of the most dangerous places to be in a tornado, Brooks said.
Also, because of storm tracks, or the routes storms follow due to wind and weather conditions, the further east tornadoes hit, the more likely they are to hit later in the day and even at night, when people are sleeping or not listening for warnings, Gensini said.
https://webcenters.netscape.compuserve.com/news/story/0001/20230113/fa13b8eb2d175bc33ef4b7009576cc5e
What came together to make deadly Alabama tornado
A La Nina weather pattern, warm moist air coming from an unusually toasty Gulf of Mexico, likely juiced by climate change, and a decades long eastward shift of tornadoes came together to create the unusually early and deadly storm system that hit Alabama Thursday, meteorologists said.
And it may be the start of a bad tornado year, one expert worries.
Early signals, which could change, “indicate the overall pattern remains favorable for an above average tornadic year,” said Northern Illinois University meteorology professor Victor Gensini, who studies tornado patterns.
Gensini said his concern is mostly based on historic patterns and changes in atmospheric conditions that happen when a La Nina, which is a natural cooling of parts of the Pacific that changes weather worldwide, dissipates like it is forecast to do in a few months.
A NEEDED COMBINATION
For tornadoes to form, two big ingredients are needed that often aren’t at high enough levels at the same time: wet stormy instability and wind shear, which is a difference in wind speeds and directions at different altitudes.
At this time of year, “shear is a guarantee,” said Harold Brooks, a senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Severe Storms Laboratory. “What happens is when you get moisture you can have a (storm) system. That is the ingredient that is usually missing this time of year.”
The cold front was following a classic waviness in the jet stream — the atmospheric rivers that move weather systems — seen in La Nina winters, Gensini said. La Nina winters tend to produce more tornadoes and NOAA this week said preliminary numbers show 1,331 tornadoes in 2022, which was a La Nina year, 9% more than average.
“If you’re going to get tornadoes in January, this is the type of setup that’s going to produce them,” Gensini said.
Still without moisture there are no tornadoes.
WARM MOIST AIR
Measurements of moisture in the Alabama air were about twice as high as they should be this time of year and more like May in Tornado Alley, an area stretching from Texas to South Dakota known for being prone to twisters, Gensini said. That’s more than enough for a tornado.
The warm moist air is from the Gulf of Mexico and he said, “that’s a climate change signal.”
Gensini pointed to NOAA measurements of water temperature throughout the Gulf on a computer screen and said: “Look at that number. 70 (21 degrees Celsius). 70. 70. That is ridiculous. That’s way above average" for this time of year. That nearby warm water juiced up the air.
“This is very much a La Nina type of system that you’d expect but is being augmented by abnormally warm Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures,” Gensini said.
The warm humid air hits the cold front and goes up like a ramp and the mixing that creates tornadoes begin, Gensini said.
TORNADOES HITTING EAST
Over the past few decades, a new pattern of tornado activity has emerged.
There are fewer tornadoes in Tornado Alley and more of them east of the Mississippi River in the Southeast, a 2018 study by Gensini and Brooks found.
Tornado activity is increasing most in Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa and parts of Ohio and Michigan. The biggest drop in number of tornadoes is in Texas, but even with the decline, Texas still gets the most tornadoes of any state.
Gensini said his lab is working this summer to try to figure out why that is.
MORE VULNERABILITY
A nasty side effect of tornadoes moving further east is that they are moving from less populated areas to more crowded ones, Brooks and Gensini said.
In Tornado Alley, a tornado can go for miles and miles and not hit anything and anyone and thus not be an issue, Brooks said. But that’s not really the case in the East. People and buildings are in the way.
And the people in the way are more vulnerable.
“There’s more poverty in the Southeast, there’s a greater mobile home population” which is one of the most dangerous places to be in a tornado, Brooks said.
Also, because of storm tracks, or the routes storms follow due to wind and weather conditions, the further east tornadoes hit, the more likely they are to hit later in the day and even at night, when people are sleeping or not listening for warnings, Gensini said.
https://webcenters.netscape.compuserve.com/news/story/0001/20230113/fa13b8eb2d175bc33ef4b7009576cc5e