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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - February 15-16, 2023

UncleJuJu98 said:
I thought 45% was high risk. And 30% was moderate?

It makes it a high risk if it's a 30% hatched but not just a regular 30%.

Yeah I doubt they'll bump it to a high risk cause I doubt it would be anything other than a hatched area for the higher potential.
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I have never seen a 30% (or 25% back when that was used) tornado contour that didn't have a hatched area within it, although I may have seen one or two where the hatching didn't fill the entire contour (don't ask me when, lol). I suppose it could come up at some point in, say, the case of a landfalling TC that they had high confidence would be a prolific tornado producer since those tend to be less likely to produce strong-violent tornadoes compared to traditional supercell setups, but it would be rare for them to be that confident about it. Even the record-breaking Ivan only warranted an unhatched 15% (MDT risk under the then-current criteria).
 
CheeselandSkies said:
I have never seen a 30% (or 25% back when that was used) tornado contour that didn't have a hatched area within it, although I may have seen one or two where the hatching didn't fill the entire contour (don't ask me when, lol). I suppose it could come up at some point in, say, the case of a landfalling TC that they had high confidence would be a prolific tornado producer since those tend to be less likely to produce strong-violent tornadoes compared to traditional supercell setups, but it would be rare for them to be that confident about it. Even the record-breaking Ivan only warranted an unhatched 15% (MDT risk under the then-current criteria).
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Good point, yeah when I usually see a enchanched or slight by day two I always look for the possibility of a upgrade to the next risk level. I'd say about 50% of the time they do a upgrade by day 1.
 
Shouted from the rooftops about next two days and nobody believed me. I still think both are going to overperform. The spatial area of sigtor risk is insane and much larger than what's represented with the two 10#s from the SPC.

Today: Dryline in S OK all the way to western TN along the warm front, and potentially (but conditionally) in the WS further south in the arlams area.
Tomorrow: Warm sector from S IN/extreme SW OH all the way down to the gulf coast.

Latest CAMs have the SFC low tracking slightly more north on Thursday which veers the SFC winds slightly, however, the morning convection we're likely to see will probably leave outflow boundaries that will locally enhance hodographs with some SFC backing.
 
xJownage said:
Shouted from the rooftops about next two days and nobody believed me. I still think both are going to overperform. The spatial area of sigtor risk is insane and much larger than what's represented with the two 10#s from the SPC.

Today: Dryline in S OK all the way to western TN along the warm front, and potentially (but conditionally) in the WS further south in the arlams area.
Tomorrow: Warm sector from S IN/extreme SW OH all the way down to the gulf coast.

Latest CAMs have the SFC low tracking slightly more north on Thursday which veers the SFC winds slightly, however, the morning convection we're likely to see will probably leave outflow boundaries that will locally enhance hodographs with some SFC backing.
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Bro lol, I was on those talking points before you hahah I was one of the few going against the grain on this one.

Drive up from Florida and come chase some lol, should be a sunny day with easy to see storms
 
The Nino said:
Sure hope not. But if a long track tornado were to go across Alabama, it would be on those tracks. It’s amazing how consistent it is
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Tommorow is probably one of the better environments for discrete tornadic cells in Alabama in a while ( or atleast from this years January events ) if they can initiate a bit ahead of the cold front, if initiation is stalled to when the front.is super close. It'll turn into a linear mess.

The MMFS has shown a lot of hints at left to right motion on these cells which is good for longer tracked tornadoes.
 
The Nino said:
Sure hope not. But if a long track tornado were to go across Alabama, it would be on those tracks. It’s amazing how consistent it is
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Also I should correct myself, long track supercells. And accompanying strong tornadoes at times. Not necessarily both at the same time lol. Although a possibility remains for that
 
I always think having the counties listed in the areas helps those who may not realize where their county is at on a map understand the exact risk. Here is the Enhanced Risk for tomorrow along with the hatched areas with counties shown. This isn't to scare anyone but to make them aware of what the threat is. Be Safe and Be Weather Aware.
 

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