cheestaysfly
Member
The entire circle is over where I live
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - December 8th-10th, 2023
- Thread starter JBishopwx
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- severe weather
KevinH
Member
Right.
cheestaysfly
Member
Well guys, I got an underground tornado shelter installed in my yard in early November so I've got it if needed, but I'm hoping I don't have to test it out just yet. I still feel just as nervous waiting for these days to occur but the shelter does give me a little piece of mind.
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Saturday 18z GFS run maintains a tornado threat in Louisiana but shifts it slightly northwest compared to the previous run. This forecast sounding is from near the LA/AR border - which would of course place it perfectly in the Radar Hole™ between SHV, LZK and DGX:
CheeselandSkies
Member
That hodograph is pretty straight, and the wind barbs pretty unidirectional. That TOR hazard type is likely fueled by quite large CAPE for the time of year. The reason the ceiling isn't expected to be higher with this event is because that's largely not overlapping with strong low-level directional shear.
ashtonlemleywx
Member
I was really hoping I wasn't going to have to chase in NE MS and NW AL. Very challenging terrain compared to rest of Dixie Alley.
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Thanks for the input. Since I'm not an expert at reading these soundings, it's probably a good thing I'm not a professional met - and if I was the NWS would have to change their logo:
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(Still, the sounding analogs of April 23, 2000 and March 4, 1966 were enough to raise an eyebrow for me. Not saying we'll see anything remotely as violent as Candlestick Park 1966 tomorrow, but it was enough to make me wonder.)
Dixie Alley has been THE Tornado Alley over the last few years and why is that?
Well basically because we sit right on the Gulf, which means it doesn't take a lot of time to get moisture return like it does in the Central/Southern Plains.
Well basically because we sit right on the Gulf, which means it doesn't take a lot of time to get moisture return like it does in the Central/Southern Plains.
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We moved in July and we now have a basement. Not thrilled with the idea of being down there all night.
Never heard much about the RRFS, is it reliable?
It's still experimental, but from the times I've used it, it's done pretty good.
Tennessee and North Alabama looking very good for severe weather and some spin ups in the new HRRR.
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warneagle
Member
Yeah this is not trending in a good direction.
ashtonlemleywx
Member
Hwy 45 corridor and Tupelo Mississippi is my primary chasing target tmrw. I may eventually work over to Northeastern Alabama.
I knew the models would shift but damn not this far East. Whatever. I'll be wherever the action is tmrw.
I knew the models would shift but damn not this far East. Whatever. I'll be wherever the action is tmrw.
00Z WRF 2 Is ridiculous lol
The OG WRF model even shows substantial convection southeast of Jefferson county by 3 or 4 o'clock
The OG WRF model even shows substantial convection southeast of Jefferson county by 3 or 4 o'clock