Severe WX Severe Weather Threat - December 8th-10th, 2023

LintLicker919 said:
As a lifelong resident of east central Alabama, more central than east, I feel this lol. We can use the Storm radar app and watch a severe storm just part like the Red Sea or completely dissipate as it approaches Pell City/Lake Logan Martin where we live. Sometimes I feel like we live under a dome!
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I live in Tuscaloosa county and I swear everything inches its way over here. Of course everyone knows this place is the tornado magnet here.
 
Timhsv said:
Cough:......

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I haven’t looked in a minute and of course it drifted over here. Oh well. I will be here looking out for everyone in west central Alabama. Mainly having to respond to texts all day of people asking if anything is coming toward them. Knowing I would call if it was. Accidental rant.
 
New 00Z NAM..and this is centered at 03:00 A.M. over Winston County. SFC-1KM SRH is at 329 as well. I may be off but with some of the other trends coming east, think SPC DAY2 MAY have to be pull the Slight into western Alabama at least. This sounding calls for at least weak spin ups attm.

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00z HRRR sounding from Northwest Monroe County valid at 48 hrs.
 

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Yes there too. Northern Pickens county seems to get hit often as well.
Tuscaloosa has a path they like to take.
The southern part of the county, then going through Brookwood, then going into Jefferson county. The April 27th tornado went a bit more north than they normally do. Obviously they can hit anywhere and do. Thats just the path they prefer over here for some reason.
 
I'm just getting my new computer up and running I've been down a month with just an old iPad to use. The GFS is showing cyclogenesis in the Gulf hooking up with a front and raising hell in MS/TN/AL. It will not let me upload a GIF but if you will take a look starting December 12 through the 18th on the GFS models you'll see what I'm talking about
 
..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX TO
THE TN VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, damaging winds, and
large hail will be possible from east Texas to the Tennessee Valley,
mainly Saturday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A leading cyclogenetic surface low will quickly move from the Lake
MI area at 12Z Saturday towards James Bay. As this occurs, the cold
front trailing to its south-southwest will initially decelerate over
the south-central states, downstream of a basal shortwave impulse.
This feature should advance from the NM vicinity to the Ark-La-Tex
by 12Z Sunday. Much weaker secondary cyclogenesis is anticipated
ahead of this latter wave from the Ark-La-Tex to the TN Valley.

...East TX to the TN Valley...
While regional/global guidance has converged towards a consensus on
the upper-level synoptic pattern, differences emerge in
timing/placement of the surface baroclinic zone. In addition, CAM
guidance offers quite a bit of spread with the potential convective
evolution on Saturday. As a result, primary change has been to
expand the northeast extent of severe probabilities within a
conditionally favorable, high-shear/low-CAPE environment.

From east TX into south AR and west MS, a plume of moderate buoyancy
characterized by MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg will become established as
surface temperatures rise into the 70s, amid dew points from the mid
to upper 60s. Increasing mid-level height falls will overspread the
aforementioned baroclinic zone midday, with convective development
along/north of the surface front initially probable near the weak
cyclone in the Ark-La-Tex. This should become more widespread to the
east and south during the afternoon, although spread in CAM guidance
is above average with just how quickly this actually occurs and the
southward extent of convective development in east TX/west LA during
the afternoon. Despite these differences, strong southwesterly
deep-layer shear will be favorable for supercells producing large
hail, especially where flow can be semi-orthogonal to the front
across east TX and the Sabine Valley. A clustered convective mode
should dominate to the east across the Mid-South owing to
orientation of convective development near/ahead of the cold front
more closely paralleling the deep-layer shear vector. But embedded
supercells are expected as well, with low-level hodographs
adequately enlarged for a few tornadoes.

By late afternoon to early evening, an extensive swath of clusters
and line segments should dominate. Some increase in low-level SRH is
anticipated during this time frame, focused on central to north
portions of MS/AL and northward. This should foster a continued
damaging-wind and embedded tornado threat east of the MS Valley even
as convection outpaces/overturns the instability plume.
Low-probability wind/tornado threats will probably persist overnight
but should gradually wane in time.

..Grams.. 12/08/2023
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SPC2.jpg


SPCTOR2.jpg
 
MoonBaby said:
Yes there too. Northern Pickens county seems to get hit often as well.
Tuscaloosa has a path they like to take.
The southern part of the county, then going through Brookwood, then going into Jefferson county. The April 27th tornado went a bit more north than they normally do. Obviously they can hit anywhere and do. Thats just the path they prefer over here for some reason.
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Cullman County here. We're the North Alabama magnet.
 
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