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Weak low level lapse rates should keep most of the remaining discrete cells at bay by this point, although there still exists a corridor for favorable tornado potential in extreme SE AL/SW GA and the FL panhandle.Will the low-level jet be a factor tonight like it was last night?
Brings up an interesting point. I have some research to do, but I have a couple starting theories:
1. SFC wind veering close to the front...the 850 LLJ was almost due south yesterday. any SFC veering would result in negative SRH in the column right next to the surface, which could've tanked the tornado threat. This is one that I just can't verify, however.
2. Extremely low DCAPE. DCAPE IVO these storms were as low as 300-400 J/kg. Considering the moderate instability we had, and strong SR inflow, it's very possible that it was just hard for these supercells to produce enough RFD
Truthfully, #1 would be the factor that would "explain" this in the way that makes the most sense, but that seems to rarely be the case when it comes to weather.
What do you guys think?
That's interesting, since excessive DCAPE was one of the reasons posited for 11/29 being relatively tame considering what could have happened (not to dismiss what did happen then or yesterday by any means) Honestly I think it's beyond limits of even the latest/best modeling and smartest forecasters to confidently identify and predict what separates tornado setups like yesterday and 11/29 from, say, 12/10/21. The critical factors that determine supercell behavior in what at face value are equally conducive environments seem to occur on space and time scales too fine to accurately resolve. Clearly, CAPE/shear/STP are not the be-all/end-all.
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I am not exactly sure but I think I may have seen high-end EF3 tornado damage. Sorry about the caps but I have gotten in the habit of using them in other conversations.Have you seen any plausibly violent damage from any tornadoes in the last two days?