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Severe Weather Threat - December 12-14, 2022

brianc33710 said:
It is interesting that neither the large hail or significant severe winds are forecast by the SPC.
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These are gonna be low-topped cells so you're not gonna get big hail the way you do with a higher-topped warm season supercell. Typical of high-shear modest-CAPE cold season events where the moist layer is pretty shallow.
 
I assume the MOD Risk extends into the extreme SW portion of BMX CWA but BMX hasn't updated its threats map since 327 am CST. But this super heavy rain should alleviate the BHM area from a severe weather threat. BMX has even 1/5 south of BHM.

Of note, the Fultondale Jan 2021 EF3 formed in a Marginal Risk updated to Slight just before the event began. And the March 2020 Nashville EF3 was Slight & the EF4 just east was only in Marginal & 2% Tornado threat. So you don't need 3/5+ risks for individual strong to even violent tornadoes.

Update: BMX has updated its map with 4/5 in extreme SW CWA & 1/5 to include BHM & a little north. Still I don't see us with more than a flooding threat.
 
brianc33710 said:
I assume the MOD Risk extends into the extreme SW portion of BMX CWA but BMX hasn't updated its threats map since 327 am CST. But this super heavy rain should alleviate the BHM area from a severe weather threat. BMX has even 1/5 south of BHM.

Of note, the Fultondale Jan 2021 EF3 formed in a Marginal Risk updated to Slight just before the event began. And the March 2020 Nashville EF3 was Slight & the EF4 just east was only in Marginal & 2% Tornado threat. So you don't need 3/5+ risks for individual strong to even violent tornadoes.
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Yep. TORs don't read maps.
 
brianc33710 said:
I assume the MOD Risk extends into the extreme SW portion of BMX CWA but BMX hasn't updated its threats map since 327 am CST. But this super heavy rain should alleviate the BHM area from a severe weather threat. BMX has even 1/5 south of BHM.

Of note, the Fultondale Jan 2021 EF3 formed in a Marginal Risk updated to Slight just before the event began. And the March 2020 Nashville EF3 was Slight & the EF4 just east was only in Marginal & 2% Tornado threat. So you don't need 3/5+ risks for individual strong to even violent tornadoes.
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Hattiesburg EF4 was a slight back when there was no enhanced. 10% hatched for tornadoes that day in a small area that ended up supporting the tornado. Looking at the New Iberia tornado though, I think we are going to see some significant tornadoes today.
 
The KLIX radar is back online and it’s a good thing. Looks like it sees a storm that is potentially tornadic that the other sites can’t southwest of Montpelier, LA.

9F44B87F-03B3-4EF0-B013-CEAF32FCB1C6.jpeg

Edit: the NWS has now issued a tornado warning for this storm.
 
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