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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat April 7-10, 2021 (1 Viewer)

MattPetrulli

Member
Messages
156
Location
Pigeon Forge, TN
Do these conditions warrant an upgrade to Moderate? A little less than 2 weeks back we had a fairly significant system but the SPC never upgraded from the Enhanced risk, though doing so was warranted by mid-late afternoon.
Imo I wouldn't be too surprised to see a moderate for wind next update. Right now, only model supporting an upgrade for tornadoes would be NAM though that's kind of an outlier for discrete development and seemed to be trending more towards upscale like CAMS have been.
 

Austin Dawg

Member
2021 Supporter
Messages
242
Location
Leander, Texas
That's a whale of an Enhanced risk (formed by the combined shapes of the 30% wind and hail contours)! Also, rather unusual for them to do such an in-depth discussion of the various models and why they are siding with the ones they are.

The discussion reads like I will either have the dry line start right over my head or have a front row seat to watching it fire up just to my east. The sky is indeed big and bright here and I get to watch huge storms well after they have moved east. I'll try to get some pictures so you can see what I'm talking about.
 
This is going to be one of those events for Alabama where the state gets caught in two convective outlooks and meteorologists have to keep explaining that the Friday outlook goes through 7am Saturday morning. I think the Saturday morning round is the primary reason the slight and enhanced risks on the Friday outlook were expanded in Alabama.
 
Messages
761
Location
Madison, WI

It looks like just a minor revision to the 1730Z update and not a major change in thinking like the previous Day 3 outlook.

In fact, the 1730Z update was a pretty significant change from the initial one, removing the 30% hatched hail contour (and thus the Enhanced risk) away from the DFW area, and removing the 10% tornado area. However, they did significantly expand the 30% hatched wind area. It looks like they are anticipating almost a derecho-like event. Pretty early in the season for one, but that far south I guess I could see it.
 

cobber2076

Member
Messages
4
Location
Huntsville, AL
Watching streaming TV coverage (WBIR) of a tornado-warned storm northwest of Knoxville TN. Damage to an elementary school gym (Pleasant Hill). Looks like it's to the south of the Slight risk contour on the SPC outlook for today. The meteorologist just noted the storms are in a gap between Morrisville and Nashville radars.
 
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TH2002

Member
Messages
278
Location
California, United States
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Watching streaming TV coverage (WBIR) of a tornado-warned storm northwest of Knoxville TN. Damage to an elementary school gym (Pleasant Hill). Looks like it's to the south of the Slight risk contour on the SPC outlook for today. The meteorologist just noted the storms are in a gap between Morrisville and Nashville radars.
Looks like we essentially have two cells fighting over the same inflow in that area right now. If they merge, that's when really bad things could happen.
 

Kragg

Member
Messages
22
Location
Burning Hams
A pretty strong couplet just popped up on the SVR-T-storm warned cell that’s NNW of KNKL radar near Campton in KY.

Edit: It was there for a second, but disappeared on the next scan
E4B6F592-C8C4-415E-B818-58E1F88F9E81.png
 

Kragg

Member
Messages
22
Location
Burning Hams
Possibly a debris ball on the torwarned cell south of Huntsville TN
 

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