Severe WX Severe Weather Threat April 7-10, 2021

[TH2002]

There are currently two Tornado Warnings in effect in Arkansas and Missouri.

Tornado Watch 75 is in effect with a 70% probability for tornadoes and 40% probability for significant tornadoes.

Broad Marginal Risk area for April 8.

Day 3 Enhanced Risk area for April 9.

15% severe probabilities for Alabama, Georgia and the Florida Panhandle on April 10.

 

[WesL]

Watching these carefully, if I remember correctly that one in Arkansas would track near a nuclear power plant.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

There are currently two Tornado Warnings in effect in Arkansas and Missouri.

Tornado Watch 75 is in effect with a 70% probability for tornadoes and 40% probability for significant tornadoes.

Broad Marginal Risk area for April 8.

Day 3 Enhanced Risk area for April 9.

15% severe probabilities for Alabama, Georgia and the Florida Panhandle on April 10.

Wow, a highly rare unscheduled update to the Day 3 outlook to make an upgrade. Even more surprising that they would do so for a relatively small area. 18Z models must have showed something big, with good agreement. I haven't had time to dive in yet.

 

[TH2002]

Watching these carefully, if I remember correctly that one in Arkansas would track near a nuclear power plant.

Yeah, the one in Russellville. Fortunately the TOR warning has again been replaced and Russellville is under a SVR warning though a TOR POSSIBLE tag is still in place.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Yeah, the one in Russellville. Fortunately the TOR warning has again been replaced and Russellville is under a SVR warning though a TOR POSSIBLE tag is still in place.

Everything looks fairly linear/anemic at this point in time. If one or two more robust tornadic supercells do develop today, I expect it to take some time.

 

[Tennie]

Everything looks fairly linear/anemic at this point in time. If one or two more robust tornadic supercells do develop today, I expect it to take some time.

Yeah, the radars are currently showing some fairly messy convection currently over much of the ENH area. However, things still have the potential to change, so it would be best to continue keeping an eye on things...

 

[Tennie]

TOR-warned cell north of Carmel, LA, looks to be trying to wrap up tight (at least on reflectivity, anyway; velocity is a little more ambiguous).

 

[WesL]

Little bit of drop on CC - status is now observed on the LA storm near Hall Summit/Ringgold

 

[Tennie]

TOR-warned cell north of Carmel, LA, looks to be trying to wrap up tight (at least on reflectivity, anyway; velocity is a little more ambiguous).

Radar-confirmed tornado on that cell now.

 

[TH2002]

The rotation on the cell does look impressive on radar, thankfully CC isn't showing much as of now.

 

[Tennie]

Comma-head feature trying to form SE of Fryeburg, LA.

 

[Kragg]

Strong velocity couplet south southwest of Hemphill tx. To west of KPOE radar

Edit looks less impressive on updated scan, but that part of the storm has rotation

 

[TH2002]

TOR for this couplet east of Ruston, LA

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Possible tornado near Galion/Bonita, LA was earlier reported radar confirmed, although the latest warning statement downgrades to the standard "radar indicated rotation" it still shows as a TORR on GR Level 3.

Cell down near Fort Polk, although only severe-warned at the moment, is fairly robust, discrete and might have the best chance of anything yet today.

 

[Kragg]

That fort Polk cell has some pretty strong rotation in the upper levels.

 

[andyhb]

Possible tornado near Galion/Bonita, LA was earlier reported radar confirmed, although the latest warning statement downgrades to the standard "radar indicated rotation" it still shows as a TORR on GR Level 3.

Cell down near Fort Polk, although only severe-warned at the moment, is fairly robust, discrete and might have the best chance of anything yet today.

Damage reported with that storm.

 

[TH2002]

Eyes on these two cells in LA, first one E of Fort Polk and the second near the TX/LA state line

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Eyes on these two cells in LA, first one E of Fort Polk and the second near the TX/LA state line
View attachment 8448

Earlier Ft. Polk cell now near Alexandria appears to be weakening (no warning of any type on it now). Must be some sort of cap and a lack of sufficient support for upward motion to overcome it.

 

[TH2002]

Earlier Ft. Polk cell now near Alexandria appears to be weakening (no warning of any type on it now). Must be some sort of cap and a lack of sufficient support for upward motion to overcome it.

TOR warning on that cell now.

 

[MattPetrulli]

TOR warning on that cell now.

Looks a destructive cell merger just saved what looks like coulda been a significant tornado about to occur judging from the mesocyclone strength.