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Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

jiharris0220 said:
Alleged two story brick home leveled, if this was well built, low end ef4 is certainly on the table.
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I wouldn’t put it past nws fort worth to rate that as ef4 depending on construction. They rated the caviness tornado ef4.

For one large home that was flattened. No debris granulation. Debris loosely piled to the side of the foundation. Weak contextuals. I'd say caviness was an even less sound candidate for ef4 than Newnan. But the home was really well build apparently so it’s not the most egregious over-rating ever.
 
tornado examiner said:
I wouldn’t put it past nws fort worth to rate that as ef4 depending on construction. They rated the caviness tornado ef4.

For one large home that was flattened. No debris granulation. Debris loosely piled to the side of the foundation. Weak contextuals. I'd say caviness was an even less sound candidate for ef4 than Newnan. But the home was really well build apparently so it’s not the most egregious over-rating ever.
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Debris granulation doesn't really occur with lower-end EF4 tornadoes if I remember correctly. Still, I don't think this is EF4 damage personally, and I wouldn't know because it's just a blurry picture of debris.
 
Maxis_s said:
Debris granulation doesn't really occur with lower-end EF4 tornadoes if I remember correctly. Still, I don't think this is EF4 damage personally, and I wouldn't know because it's just a blurry picture of debris.
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Yeah. But still…it is possible…im no engineer but that is definitely at least ef3 though. if they rate that as anything less than ef3 it’s gonna be due to some bowling green levels of bullsh*t lmao. (slabbed anchored brick duplex rated mid range ef2 because “debris impacts that can’t be fully verified”)
 
tornado examiner said:
The homes look expensive enough on google earth lol…but then again you can’t tell construction quality from the outside. I'm also wonder if the Celina tornado is the same one that hit pilot point after crossing the lake. Or if there was a cycle
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Celina and Prosper are where builders are putting down large communities with large newer built $$$ homes since many suburbs around Dallas (especially near the airports) have become land locked. NWS Ft Worth posted that they are starting their surveys so I am very curious about the tracks and intensities of that cell. I’m wondering if it initially tracked all the way from Bowie to Pilot Point, then formed a new circulation that produced the tornado that would impact Celina on east. The survey may take them some time but I think there is luckily a bit of a lull in storms for the next few days. Texas was under some kind of risk area almost every day last week.
 
NorthBamaWX said:
wish i knew what this means
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You may find this page to be helpful:
talkweather.com

The Sounding Tutorial Thread

Soundings are some of the most important forecasting and real-time analysis tools meteorologists have, and they are a brilliant creation that house a myriad of dense information in a screen. However, for most laypeople, they are obscure and hide their secrets. This thread is designed to teach...
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Maxis_s said:
That's gonna be a big problem once the cap erodes.
Actually, is the cap gonna erode? I haven't paid attention to today's forecasts.
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Mesoscale Discussion 0977
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Areas affected...far southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 261836Z - 262100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storm producing very large hail and a few tornadoes may
develop in the next 2 hours into southwest Missouri and vicinity.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a low close to the KS/OK/MO
tri-state area, where cumulus fields continue to deepen. This region
is just ahead of a developing cold front with a deep layer of
moisture convergence, and just north of a steep low-level lapse rate
plume over eastern OK.

Given the steep lapse rates aloft and continued heating near the
surface low and front, storms may form within 1-2 hours here. Both
instability and wind profiles favor supercells producing very large
hail, and, a tornado risk will likely increase as storms proceed
east into a more favorable low-level shear environment.

..Jewell/Bunting.. 05/26/2024
 
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