Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

[TH2002]

Wow, this is a classic Plains tornado if I've ever seen one.



And had to include this video just to showcase what average storm chaser is these days... Everything from the Soyjak's in the thumbnail to the fact he nearly gets himself killed as the tornado knocks down powerlines merely feet from his vehicle. I'm genuinely shocked we haven't had any post-2013 chaser fatalities...

 

[TornadoFan]

Not sure why the Clarksville storm isn't warned yet.

 

[Clancy]

Wow, this is a classic Plains tornado if I've ever seen one.



And had to include this video just to showcase what average storm chaser is these days... Everything from the Soyjak's in the thumbnail to the fact he nearly gets himself killed as the tornado knocks down powerlines merely feet from his vehicle. I'm genuinely shocked we haven't had any post-2013 chaser fatalities...

It really is a miracle chasers aren't getting themselves killed all the time.

 

[Clancy]

The Clarksville cell is in a localized minimum of instability, though shear is plentiful. Could become tornadic at any time.

 

[buckeye05]

That’s not a TDS, it’s the RFD showing up on CC. No organized couplet yet either. Doesn’t quite warrant a warning yet.

 

[Jellyroll]

Whatever came of that navy surplus phased array radar?

If the mods would like me to move this conversation, I'd be happy to, since my opinions and thoughts are likely off topic. I will start by saying that I am unaware as to where they are on the implementation, just only that I had read (a while back) that it was in the works. I will start by saying I am a huge proponent of re-purpose / cross platform use of technology. The first two issuances of radars to the NWS where surplus Navy designs. That said, technology for nautical and aviation navigation is not exactly a perfect fit for terrestrial based detection of severe weather. To have a system specific to this use became one of the main drivers for the current system designed in the 70's and implemented in the 80's.
For an in-depth technical description of current phase array technology: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/103/10/BAMS-D-21-0172.1.xml
In my opinion the science has far exceeded the technology available to the NWS. The singular paper that pulled me into being an amateur weather bug was Doswell's 2011 paper on DCCVs but sadly, there was the realization that he had to present his work in the form of ideas due to there not being sufficient technology to move from hypothetical to theoretical. I know this scientific community will keep advancing and hopefully new/ repurposed technology can assist in this but a nationwide full platform replacement I feel is well overdue.

 

[mike36]

I’m a long time lurker and sometimes poster here at TW. Firstly, I think our society these days of wanting immediate gratification leads to impatience and calling a “bust” too early. Also this may come off wrong, but I would be embarrassed to question someone that’s a professional, trained meteorologist as merely an enthusiast myself. Sure I have opinions but I leave it to the experts who make a living doing this. On the flip side, I wouldn’t want them to question a diagnosis that I may give a person because that is MY expertise LOL. But I do love this forum and learning from all the great people here.

 

[Clancy]

The most recent D1 from an hour ago saw an expansion of the ENH southward for damaging winds.

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS
INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe storms are possible from the Ozarks and
nearby Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley States today, with
threats for tornadoes, severe gusts and occasional large hail.

...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central
Appalachians...
Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe
gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central
KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to
destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints
continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east
through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts
and embedded QLCS circulations.

In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient
has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more
diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe
thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across
southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by
50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures
should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a
risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong
tornadoes.

The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear
structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight
hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment.
The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of
northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated
guidance.

..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/26/2024

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Wow, this is a classic Plains tornado if I've ever seen one.



And had to include this video just to showcase what average storm chaser is these days... Everything from the Soyjak's in the thumbnail to the fact he nearly gets himself killed as the tornado knocks down powerlines merely feet from his vehicle. I'm genuinely shocked we haven't had any post-2013 chaser fatalities...

Looks like very good situational awareness to me.

 

[Maxis_s]

Your question is a little off topic but folks would be happy to discuss in depth on other forums here.

Which thread could I ask these questions in?

 

[Equus]

This played out effectively identically to the other two high end Oklahoma risks this year, with the nasty stuff holding off until the nocturnal LLJ at the eastern end of the risk; clearly we're having serious trouble getting things going in daylight hours in Oklahoma, but if the last two deadly violent nocturnal outbreaks didn't teach some patience to wait for the LLJ to kick in before canceling the event I'm not sure what will

 

[Liberty4dayz]

Ok, someone help me out here. I'm in Nashville. The hatched tor risk doesn't quite get here. This mornings convention...is that all that's coming? Or are we expecting more to form in behind this line later one today?

 

[SGFmoTwister]

This chaser was basically inside the tornado in Claremore. Very dangerous. 4 hrs. 20 min. mark

 

[Clancy]

Ok, someone help me out here. I'm in Nashville. The hatched tor risk doesn't quite get here. This mornings convention...is that all that's coming? Or are we expecting more to form in behind this line later one today?

Negatory, you'll have more coming later today, late afternoon or early evening.

 

[MichelleH]

Which thread could I ask these questions in?

You're welcome to make a new thread about that topic.

 

[Bevo]

I'm waiting for more close up pictures of that one home near Celina...could potentially be high end ef3 depending on if that home was very well built. It is big and flattened.

Celina is a growing community so there are lots of newer builds out there. That doesn’t always correlate with “well-built” especially if they were rush jobs but those are likely solid brick with slab foundations.

 

[MidTNWx]

Ok, someone help me out here. I'm in Nashville. The hatched tor risk doesn't quite get here. This mornings convention...is that all that's coming? Or are we expecting more to form in behind this line later one today?

There’s a nasty line coming at us currently. Should be here shortly. One final line (likely) comes after dark.

 

[Kds86z]

5 dead in Arkansas now.

 

[TH2002]

This chaser was basically inside the tornado in Claremore. Very dangerous. 4 hrs. 20 min. mark

Chasers endangering not only themselves but also their family members now... I'm done

 

[Maxis_s]

Just saw a full radar loop of the OK-AR storm. That was one hell of a supercell, it had to have produced like, at least 6 or 7 tornadoes.