Severe Weather Threat 5/25-5/26, 2024

[CheeselandSkies]

12Z GFS has continued the trend back to a little more potent look for Sunday, but it's a little too progressive for a significant threat in Illinois or even western Indiana. More central Indiana and points east, and south into KY/northwest-northern middle TN. NAM is slower, even a little more potent with the sfc/500mb look (more along the lines of yesterday's 12Z GFS) and as usual toward the end of its range went a little crazy with the northward advance of the warm sector, with 3KM EHIs >4 extending into southern WI.

 

[Maxis_s]

Alright NAM. Take your meds.

 

[Maxis_s]

Yeah, wow. This NAM run is nuts. May 6 has competition.

 

[Maxis_s]

Don't look at the NAM 3km

 

[Avon]

Nam is definitely concerning for Sunday. Very potent setup across a broad area. Even had some pds soundings in southern michigan. Taking it with a grain of salt for now until I see better agreement.

 

[Maxis_s]

I'm much more concerned about Saturday right now. I haven't seen STP parameters that high, let alone across nearly all of Oklahoma.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

5/24 isn't in the title, but SPC snuck in a 5% tor contour for the upper Midwest including southern WI for Day 2 (tomorrow). Meanwhile the 18Z 3K NAM goes insane, wanting a Tuesday redux for us. HRRR is tamer with us mainly getting a midmorning MCS with moderate UH tracks at most (the NWS forecast actually calls for sunny in the morning followed by storms after 5 PM, which goes directly against multiple HRRR runs).

 

[Austin Dawg]

5/24 isn't in the title, but SPC snuck in a 5% tor contour for the upper Midwest including southern WI for Day 2 (tomorrow). Meanwhile the 18Z 3K NAM goes insane, wanting a Tuesday redux for us. HRRR is tamer with us mainly getting a midmorning MCS with moderate UH tracks at most (the NWS forecast actually calls for sunny in the morning followed by storms after 5 PM, which goes directly against multiple HRRR runs).

View attachment 27596

None of this looks good at all, but this looks bad for the upper Plains

 

[notsoencrypted]

5/24 isn't in the title, but SPC snuck in a 5% tor contour for the upper Midwest including southern WI for Day 2 (tomorrow).

Yo, weather, there are people who still don't have power here. Could you not? (That'll do it, right?)

In seriousness, I hadn't realized this, and am intrigued by how things turn out for this weekend. As others have said, it being a holiday weekend makes me more nervous about things. General folks will be less attentive.

 

[JBishopwx]

I added 5/24 in the title to the other thread to keep it separate from this one.

Severe Weather Threat 5.22-5.24.24

New Thread for today (5.22) and tomorrow (5.23) to keep it separate from the Greenfield, Iowa discussion.

talkweather.com

 

[Stormchaser4life]

Pretty much every model dry Sat. Very interesting. Curious if SPC will address this

 

[slenker]

Any analogs to look at for Sunday? It feels like a pretty unique setup, the flow is very zonal compared to an average event.

 

[Wind Driven Coconut]

Ok I’ll bite. The initial Day 2 seemed a bit more reserved than I expected based on some other posts I was seeing. Thoughts on tomorrow? Another high ceiling, low floor scenario for Oklahoma?

 

[jiharris0220]

Ok I’ll bite. The initial Day 2 seemed a bit more reserved than I expected based on some other posts I was seeing. Thoughts on tomorrow? Another high ceiling, low floor scenario for Oklahoma?

More like high ceiling, to nothing.

There’s no failure mode for tomorrow except a cap, lack of forcing and in turn weak to no convection.

Other than that, the kinematics are the most volatile I’ve seen this year with some soundings containing SRH values in the 400-900 range and cape as high as 6000.

 

[Maxis_s]

More like high ceiling, to nothing.

There’s no failure mode for tomorrow except a cap, lack of forcing and in turn weak to no convection.

Other than that, the kinematics are the most volatile I’ve seen this year with some soundings containing SRH values in the 400-900 range and cape as high as 6000.

It's May 6 all over again, except the fail mode is the opposite problem.

 

[Maxis_s]

I'm very very surprised that they made the tornado risk tomorrow so small.

 

[jiharris0220]

Perfectly reasonable considering that there’s a high possibility that utterly nothing happens.

 

[Maxis_s]

Perfectly reasonable considering that there’s a high possibility that utterly nothing happens.

I mean the actual size of it. Models don't show anything convecting in that area.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Maxis_s]

Oh that's just lovely