Tanner
Member
As bad as it has been, it could have been so much worse at the same time. May 25th very well could have been even more violent.That didn't happen...the 26th was enhanced on both Day 2 outlooks, and all the way up until the 20Z Day 1 upgrade to moderate.
The 25th was one of the toughest and most bizarre forecasts I've ever seen. In one outlook cycle, the big uncertainty precluding a high risk went from a cap bust/lack of storm coverage; to excessive storm interactions/outflow. Then when it became apparent the moisture was outperforming the models, it looked like it might go huge (in daylight) after all, only for that left split to come flying through and take out not one, but TWO supercells (the one near Mutual, OK, and the one in south-central Kansas) just as they were on the cusp of producing what would otherwise have almost certainly been long-lived, intense tornadoes.