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Severe Weather Threat 5/19-5/22/2024

Maxis_s

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It makes me curious what did the tornadoes in say Moore and Joplin do that this one didn't?
Probably more intense slabbing/destruction of more well built homes. Those were in much more populated suburban areas and were much larger, so they hit a much larger swath of structures, as well as moving slower, allowing for a longer time to damage structures. Meanwhile in Greenfield, the tornado was narrow and fast-moving, leading to much less time to damage structures, as well as Greenfield being a much more rural area and potentially not having any buildings capable of withstanding EF5 damage/windspeeds.
 
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It makes me curious what did the tornadoes in say Moore and Joplin do that this one didn't?
IIRC out of all damage points in Moore only 0.4% were rated EF5. So it can be pretty much a needle in a haystack type deal.

There’s probably a ton of deliberation that happens as well. I know on the AmericanWX forum back in May of 2011, someone who saw the NWS chats discussed how there was a pretty intense debate on moving El Reno 2011 to an EF5… and look at the historical damage that caused, which in hindsight was about as slam dunk as you can get ratings wise.
 
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What were the tires in the video from? Wheelbarrows or tractors? If it's the latter that's some ridiculous damage.

Those are tractor and/or truck tires, but it's entirely possible they were already sitting around, not on anything. Pretty common in farm country, especially if there's anywhere that uses ground silage (usually long white or black plastic with silage underneath).
 

buckeye05

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It makes me curious what did the tornadoes in say Moore and Joplin do that this one didn't?
The main difference isn't really what types of damage they did, but how intense that damage was. The contextual damage in both of those EF5s was honestly three times as violent as what we are seeing here in Greenfield. There is no ground scoured to bare soil, no entire groves of trees stripped of every square inch of bark, and no debris granulated into literal sawdust fragments and piled against foundations in Greenfield. While Greenfield did scour, debark, and granulate, it didn't do those things to the same absurdly extreme level that was seen in Joplin and Moore.
 
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Maxis_s

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IIRC out of all damage points in Moore only 0.4% were rated EF5. So it can be pretty much a needle in a haystack type deal.

There’s probably a ton of deliberation that happens as well. I know on the AmericanWX forum someone who saw the NWS chats discussed how there was a pretty intense debate on moving El Reno 2011 to an EF5… and look at the historical damage that caused, which in hindsight was about as slam dunk as you can get ratings wise.
I assume there was debate around El Reno 2011 because it didn't impact many traditional structures, let alone ones capable of having EF5 damage. IIRC the only EF5 damage indicator was the Cactus oil rig, or whatever it was, which is definitely not a typical damage indicator.
 

Maxis_s

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It's not really what types of damage they did, but how intense that was. The contextual damage in both of those EF5s was honestly three times as violent as what we are seeing here in Greenfield. There is no ground scoured to bare soil, no entire groves of trees stripped of every square inch of bark, and no debris granulated into literal sawdust fragments and piled against foundations. While Greenfield did scour, debark, and granulate, it didn't do those things to the same extreme level that was seen in Joplin in Moore.
To be fair, Greenfield didn't hit that many trees, but the ones it did hit usually got almost completely debarked. Again, we also do have to consider size and forward speed, unless the NWS doesn't consider that which I believe isn't the case.
 
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I assume there was debate around El Reno 2011 because it didn't impact many traditional structures, let alone ones capable of having EF5 damage. IIRC the only EF5 damage indicator was the Cactus oil rig, or whatever it was, which is definitely not a typical damage indicator.
I mean, The entire body of work of that tornado from the DOW readings, to the car damage, to the cactus Oil Rig was just insane and screamed upper echelon tornado IMO.
 

Maxis_s

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I mean, The entire body of work of that tornado from the DOW readings, to the car damage, to the cactus Oil Rig was just insane and screamed upper echelon tornado IMO.
Oh, without a doubt. I just mean that typical homes or businesses weren't swept away in historic fashion which most likely makes the rating a bit more debatable, at least at the time among surveyors.
Also, I found this.
1716486348839.png
I assume they mean they'll finalize the preliminary rating today, rather than the final rating. It seems far too soon to finalize the actual rating in just two days.
 
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Oh, without a doubt. I just mean that typical homes or businesses weren't swept away in historic fashion which most likely makes the rating a bit more debatable, at least at the time among surveyors.
Also, I found this.
View attachment 27558
I assume they mean they'll finalize the preliminary rating today, rather than the final rating. It seems far too soon to finalize the actual rating in just two days.
Interesting. Did QRT/Tim Marshall even arrive yet?
 

buckeye05

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To be fair, Greenfield didn't hit that many trees, but the ones it did hit usually got almost completely debarked. Again, we also do have to consider size and forward speed, unless the NWS doesn't consider that which I believe isn't the case.
Not sure what you mean because Greenfield definitely hit numerous trees, and I've seen one single tree that is 90% to 100% debarked. A lot of the debarking I am seeing in Greenfield is undoubtedly severe (60% to 70%), but not what I would call "complete". When you look at photos of Joplin and Moore, it's almost hard to find a pic that doesn't have multiple trees with complete or near-complete debarking. Not the case in Greenfield.

Yes forward speed is something that needs to be considered, but Joplin and Moore both objectively produced vegetation damage that was much more intense than Greenfield, and that isn't really debatable.
 
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View attachment 27553
Anyways, does someone have an explanation for this tree? It looks completely debarked, but a lot of limbs are still there and seem to still have a bit of bark left, which does indicate to me that this is in fact a debarked tree, and not just a weird looking tree.

The quality is too hard to tell (and without the bark or many leaves...), but I am suspicious that it might be an ash tree, which, thanks to the emerald ash borer, is going to have bark come off a lot easier these days. My ash tree, despite being treated regularly, is losing a lot of bark easily these days. Adair County has had EAB since 2016. But I have no good proof of it being an ash tree, especially with the quality of that picture.
 

Maxis_s

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Yes forward speed is something that needs to be considered, but Joplin and Moore objectively produced vegetation damage that was much more intense than Greenfield, and that isn't really debatable.
Oh without a doubt, just pointing out that the severity of damage was likely less intense than it may have been because of its size and speed.
 

jiharris0220

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Overall I’ll put the Greenfield tornado in the same rank as Basefield/Soso and Rolling Fork.

Isolated areas of completely debarked foliage, slabbed fairly built homes, minor ground scouring here and there. Seems like a slam dunk moderate to high end ef4.

Though I still rate it lower than tornadoes like Bremen, and much lower than matador. Both of those tornadoes had more violent and consistent contextual damage involving vehicles, ground scouring, debarking, and debris granulation.
 

Maxis_s

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Overall I’ll put the Greenfield tornado in the same rank as Basefield/Soso and Rolling Fork.

Isolated areas of completely debarked foliage, slabbed fairly built homes, minor ground scouring here and there. Seems like a slam dunk moderate to high end ef4.

Though I still rate it lower than tornadoes like Bremen, and much lower than matador. Both of those tornadoes had more violent and consistent contextual damage involving vehicles, ground scouring, debarking, and debris granulation.
I'd say that's reasonable.
And yeah, Matador was definitely stronger. I still can't believe that thing was rated EF3, absolutely garbage survey.
 

TheSuckZone

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To be fair, Greenfield didn't hit that many trees, but the ones it did hit usually got almost completely debarked. Again, we also do have to consider size and forward speed, unless the NWS doesn't consider that which I believe isn't the case.
Same thing happened to the Trousdale area tornado after it went through Greensburg. Have heard that that tornado was stronger than the one that impacted Greensburg, there just wasn't anything there to hit so all it got was an EF3 rating.

Whoops, quoted wrong post but point still stands.
 

jiharris0220

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Just in case some of you guys have forgotten how truly horrifically violent matador was, as in Moore 2013 levels of violence, I now show you these pictures.

First two show deep/wide ground scouring, something I haven’t seen since vilonia.

Second two shows total annihilation of all trees, (a lot of them mesquite trees by the way) and continued ground scoring.

My jaw dropped even though I’ve seen the following 6 photos before already. Never has there been such extreme mutilation of vehicles all across the path of a tornado since 2016.

Part one
 

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