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Severe Weather Threat 5/19-5/22/2024

Kinda just theorizing here, but I think the reason why storms have kinda gone limp at the moment is because entrainment streamwise vorticity is poor.

There’s a lot of shear, but most of it is directional instead of veered like it was earlier when the surface low was closer to the storms.

The holographs show this directional shear quite nicely as by their elongated/straight appearance.
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TornadoFan17 said:
If it is rated EF3+, it will record the fastest ground speed ever by a violent tornado, overtaking the 1925 Tri-State tornado.
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Pretty likely there has been faster since. When it comes to average speed the fastest I've found was the 2012 Harrisburg at 71 MPH. The Johns et al. analysis of the Tri State tornado gives its average speed as being 59 MPH, though that doesn't seem to quite jibe with the well known map of the tornado.
 
I'm concerned about what will happen here in the Southern Plains tomorrow and Thursday.

Right now there's only a 5% TOR risk in the day 2 outlook and I hope it doesn't go higher
 
Greenfield was certainly very violent. Add in the tossing of debris up to 40k feet and it’s quite obvious this was an upper echelon tornado. Some of the preliminary photographs put it on par with our big name events of the past few years like Rolling Fork and Mayfield. I can never make heads or tails of construction quality of the residential home so I never opine on it, but I always find it fascinating when those who do on this site analyze it. Will also have to see any damage from outside of the town. I really didn’t see a lot of non-residential buildings in the drone video that it hit. Barnsdall got bumped up to an EF4 (and IIRC Rolling Fork) due to exceptional damage to non-residential buildings (Dollar store and flower shop), but I could be wrong about that. Really looking forward to @buckeye05 and @A Guy ‘s analysis on this.
 
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Tempestas Tonitrua said:
Greenfield was certainly very violent. Add in the tossing of debris up to 40k feet and it’s quite obvious this was an upper echelon tornado. Some of the preliminary photographs put it on par with our big name events of the past few years like Rolling Fork and Mayfield. I can never make heads or tails of construction quality of the residential home so I never opine on it, but I always find it fascinating when those who do on this site analyze it. Will also have to see any damage from outside of the town. I really didn’t see a lot of non-residential buildings in the drone video that it hit. Barnsdall got bumped up to an EF4 (and IIRC Rolling Fork) due to exceptional damage to non-residential buildings (Dollar store and flower shop), but I could be wrong about that. Really intrigued to see @buckeye05 and @A Guy ‘s analysis on this.
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There was one house from Barnsdall that got rated low end ef4, It was a two story home.
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