Severe Weather Threat 5/19-5/22/2024

[Tennie]

The cell that's forming near the Iowa/Missouri/Nebraska boundary junction should be watched carefully. That one is capable of doing anything.

 

[KCweatherboy]

So why did they not go with a High Risk ? This looks so certain.

From the 1630z discussion:


That said, some short-term
uncertainties exist as of 15z observational data, with gusty
post-convective northeasterly winds still present across
south-central Iowa, which relates to some uncertainty with the
northward extent of the higher-magnitude severe risk across
Minnesota/Wisconsin later today, although latest 16z data features a
recent abatement of those northerly winds.

 

[Tanner]

The cell that's forming near the Iowa/Missouri/Nebraska boundary junction should be watched carefully. That one is capable of doing anything.

Yes, if you look at Des Moines it has a strong meso aloft.

 

[brianc33710]

From the 1630z discussion:


That said, some short-term
uncertainties exist as of 15z observational data, with gusty
post-convective northeasterly winds still present across
south-central Iowa, which relates to some uncertainty with the
northward extent of the higher-magnitude severe risk across
Minnesota/Wisconsin later today, although latest 16z data features a
recent abatement of those northerly winds.

From reading this & I did several times, uncertainties reflect to the northern extent of the risk area across MN & WI due to the IA winds. I don't see why IA itself isn't upgraded, especially now with a 95/80 TW. SPC probably should have given at least part of IA a 30% tornado contour.

 

[Fred Gossage]

It may come down to uncertainty in number of tornadoes or not having a high enough confidence in specifically violent tornadoes. While EF2-EF3 tornadoes go toward the significant part of verification for a HIGH, they've verbalized on their personal Twitter accounts a few times since March 2021 that they really try to save HIGH events nowadays for when they have decent confidence in specifically violent tornadoes being involved. They can technically still go HIGH for high-end wind events, but their comments the past couple of years have made it sound like that may no longer be a thing, even if it's technically possible still.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Currently sitting in Iowa Falls. Overcast, cool and showery here. Warm front definitely still to the south. May hedge a bit south towards Ames vicinity.

 

[SilentShadow87]

New tornado warning for the Silver City area storm.

 

[Tennie]

New tornado warning for the Silver City area storm.

That's the cell that I pointed out earlier:

The cell that's forming near the Iowa/Missouri/Nebraska boundary junction should be watched carefully. That one is capable of doing anything.

And it could potentially see at least one merger fairly soon. We'll have to wait and see whether it'll be a constructive or destructive merger...

 

[andyhb]

Current wind profile at Des Moines is highly favorable for long tracked significant tornadoes with any mature supercells that move into the area.

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[Maxis_s]

Unwarned embedded tornado OTG near Henderson IA

 

[Tennie]

Nathan Moore may have a funnel cloud on his stream:

 

[TornadoFan]

Storms are growing upscale pretty quickly.

 

[Maxis_s]

This thing is developing very quickly.

 

[Clancy]

Quite the healthy couplet near Red Oak, IA. Could drop at any time.

 

[TornadoFan]

Nathan Moore has a tornado SW of Red Oak.

 

[andyhb]

That cold front may prevent a higher end event from occurring here given that it's moving at around the same speed the storms are (i.e. the storms can't get off the boundary).

 

[cincywx]

Nathan Moore may have a funnel cloud on his stream:

now on the ground

 

[Maxis_s]

Yep, on the ground. Not too large yet

 

[TornadoFan]