Severe Weather Threat 5/19-5/22/2024

[TornadoFan]

PDS watch possibly coming for Iowa.

 

[Maxis_s]

PDS watch possibly coming for Iowa.

SUMMARY...Environmental conditions are expected to becoming
increasingly supportive of a significant severe thunderstorms
capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail up to 3"
inches, strong gusts to 75 mph, and long-track tornadoes. A Tornado
Watch will likely be needed around 18-19Z, and a PDS designation is
being considered.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over southeast NE,
with an outflow-modified warm front extending east-northeast across
southern IA through the IA/IL/WI border vicinity. This warm front is
expected to rapidly move northward in response to strong mass
response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, with upper 60s
dewpoints likely in place across much of IA and mid 60s possibly
reaching southern MN. As this occurs, steep mid-level lapse rates
will also advect into the region, resulting strong buoyancy (i.e.
MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/kg) by the early afternoon. Wind fields are
expected to strengthen during this time frame as well, result in in
very long hodographs and fast storm motion. Bunkers right motion for
much of the region will be around 50 kt by the early afternoon. The
result will be an environment very supportive of significant severe
thunderstorms.

An initially discrete mode is anticipated, with the fast storm
motions allowing storms to stay ahead of the cold front impinging on
the region from the west. Any discrete storms will likely obtain
supercellular characteristics quickly, with very large hail up to 3"
inches, strong gusts to 75 mph, and tornadoes all possible. This
includes the possibility of long-lived, long-track
supercells capable of strong tornadoes and intense wind damage.
Storm interactions with the warm front, as well as the presence of
the deepening surface low, suggest the significant severe potential
will likely extend into south-central/southeast MI and southwest MN,
despite being displaced just north of the better mid-level flow and
low-level moisture.

Some upscale growth is anticipated as storms continue eastward, with
the resulting convective line capable of significant wind gusts
around 75 mph. Given the continued strengthening of the low-level
flow anticipated, some embedded QLCS circulations are likely as
well.

All of these factors suggests a significant severe weather event is
probable, and a Tornado Watch will likely be needed around 18-19Z. A
PDS designation is being considered for this watch.

 

[Ledian]

Tornado Warning for the storm over Ithaca

 

[cg9450]

We really gonna start this during lunch time

 

[Wind Driven Coconut]

Going to assume they meant southeast MN (not MI) and southwest WI (not MN) in that MCD unless this is going to be a much bigger outbreak.

 

[notsoencrypted]

Going to assume they meant southeast MN (not MI) and southwest WI (not MN) in that MCD unless this is going to be a much bigger outbreak.

I think it is correct as written. To me, that reads as if the risk area is slightly bigger, yes, as both those areas are just on the boundaries of some of the highest risk locations.

 

[atrainguy]

View attachment 27351

 

[SmokeEater]

PDS tornado watch issued.

 

[Wind Driven Coconut]

I think it is correct as written. To me, that reads as if the risk area is slightly bigger, yes, as both those areas are just on the boundaries of some of the highest risk locations.

I’ll give you SW MN makes sense but is SE MI really in play? Eventful day regardless, just thought it might have been a typo.

 

[SmokeEater]

Tor probs 90/80.

 

[jiharris0220]

 

[cincywx]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 277
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
110 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2024

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
IOWA
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
WESTERN WISCONSIN

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 110 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 90
MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...AN INCREASINGLY VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT AND VERY STRONG
ATMOSPHERIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS
INCLUDING TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
...GUYER

 

[WaryWarren]

I'm in Rochester for work today. I will try to snap some photos if anything interesting heads my way.

 

[Tennie]

I'm in Rochester for work today. I will try to snap some photos if anything interesting heads my way.

Please stay safe out there!

 

[notsoencrypted]

Hey, my dad is included in this watch. I also managed to make room in the garage for the car, so that's a positive.

 

[Kds86z]

So, to clarify.. things have trended In the direction of more discrete? I did watch treys forecast discussion. He was leaning things wouldn’t be discrete for to long.

 

[notsoencrypted]

There have been several tornado warnings in eastern NE, but it looks like so far they've been avoiding the Omaha metro.

 

[SilentShadow87]

Well, southern Ontario is supposed to get slammed with storms overnight, by which time the storms will most definitely be linear...call me paranoid, but I'm in no mood for a repeat of the May '22 derecho. Four people were killed in the general area and the power was out for days.

 

[brianc33710]

So why did they not go with a High Risk ? This looks so certain. EDIT: I would think at least a smaller 30% tornado area within the hatched 15 is a given today.

 

[Maxis_s]