- Moderator
- #1
Looks like an active stretch of severe weather next week. I'm particularly concerned about Tuesday. It has a good chance to get ugly.
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Severe Weather Threat 5/19-5/22/2024
- Thread starter Taylor Campbell
- Start date
00z Euro looks pretty alarmingly similar to 4/26 at 500 mb by 00z...
Which 4/26?
Stormchaser4life
Member
The IA/NE tornado outbreak on 4-26-24
WaryWarren
Member
CheeselandSkies
Member
Perhaps a tad further east than 4/26, which would work in my favor since I took Monday/Tuesday off from work but not Wednesday, back when tomorrow/Monday were looking a bit higher ceiling in KS than they do now. My range wouldn't be too limited Tuesday but I'd have to be back to start my shift at 3AM Wednesday.
At this rate I might skip out on chasing tomorrow/Monday and just rest up for Tuesday, especially given the above.
At this rate I might skip out on chasing tomorrow/Monday and just rest up for Tuesday, especially given the above.
Tanner
Member
A lot of people I see on socials are saying that the primary threat on the 21st is going to be from a QLCS with winds and embedded tornadoes…
I think I’d like to know what they’re smoking.
I think I’d like to know what they’re smoking.
CheeselandSkies
Member
I mean, with strongly forced setups it's always a possibility (that you will get nothing but a QLCS), but not a guarantee especially if shear vectors have enough perpendicularity to allow for storm motion off the initiating boundary.
Need to be watching NW/W OK tomorrow on the southern periphery of the wave/stronger mid level flow ejecting into the Central Plains. Multiple CAMs (NSSL WRF, NAM 3 km, FV3, both 12z MPAS runs, and the TTU WRF) have supercells down here on the nose of higher theta-e and a surging low level jet near sunset.
jiharris0220
Member
FV3 has a doomsday ef10 tornado scoring up bedrock in Oklahoma.
Can’t wait for this to not happen.
Can’t wait for this to not happen.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Appears it's actually resolving the simulated supercell's mesocyclone as a 993MB mesolow...
First time I saw a CAM do that (although IIRC it was the NSSL-WRF) was for April 4 of last year which ended up verifying as the Table Grove-Lewistown, IL tornadic HP; although I didn't put enough enough stock into it (mainly because the HRRR didn't agree) to jump on the developing convection that became that storm in time.
warneagle
Member
What time will the EF10 hit my house
jiharris0220
Member
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Kds86z
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SPC does mention tomorrow northwest Oklahoma has chance of a discrete storm. Though still in 2% tornado probability.
- Moderator
- #16
"It was an EF10, man. It was like, blowing."- Thread starter
- Moderator
- #17
I think the enhanced risk for tomorrow needs to be brought south into northwest Oklahoma with a 10% hatched tornado threat.
TornadoFan
Member
Shakespeare 2016
Member
Damn, that one crazy lady who wants an EF5 in her backyard would be overly delighted to have an EF10 in her backyard.
Shakespeare 2016
Member
Does this include rope, cone, and stovepipe EF10 tornadoes?
