Timbo64
Member
Man, this morning I never would have thought that the only time my weather radio would go off was when the tornado watch was issued.
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There's a lot that went wrong today. The first key should've been the southern stream disturbance that kicked off the morning round (which produced the majority of the storm reports here).
I, myself, bit hard on the mesoscale models....
There has been no shortage of large hail today, but the tornado count and coverage has been extremely low. No way we're verifying a high risk, although given the parameters, its issuance was justified imo.
The high risk area wasn't over Alabama. It was over SE GA where they had numerous tornado warned cells.
Largely my experience as a young one in this business, too. Not so much the case at times in tornado alley, however; thinking days like joplin and pilger.This is exactly what I was expecting in terms of potential failure mode; scattered supercells that are unable to develop and establish low level rotation. Like I said, I am always wary of events with power keg thermos and uncertain kinematics, especially in Dixie. Seen Moderate and High Risks bust that way multiple times over the years. Give me a high shear/low cape setup over a high cape/low shear setup any day.
In the heat of a significant event LSRs take a backseat if not being put on hold completely.I know, and there were only nine reports thus far. Some may have been significant, and I suspect we'll come away with a dozen or more tornadoes but I don't think activity was anywhere near what they expected when they issued it.
right now this isn't a really significant event.In the heat of a significant event LSRs take a backseat if not being put on hold completely.
Exactly. This was a pretty significant event over the Southern portion of FFC's area. There are several damaged areas that haven't been included in LSR's yet.In the heat of a significant event LSRs take a backseat if not being put on hold completely.
Up until recently we've had 6-8 tornado-warned cells at once. Plus, between about 5 pm and 11 pm on 2/23/16, only about 10 tornadoes were marked in the SPC reports, and it wasn't until the next day that the LSRs started really flooding in.right now this isn't a really significant event.
I would love to see a "what happened?" paper about this storm system. Meaning - what happened in areas that supposedly had the right parameters but couldn't sustain a single thunderstorm. While areas that were supposedly "worked over" supported training storms. I am fascinated by finding out "what happened" post-events.