Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/5/17-4/6/17

[Timbo64]

Man, this morning I never would have thought that the only time my weather radio would go off was when the tornado watch was issued.

 

[Evan]

Don't understand the lack of a TOR for the storm in TN West of Pikeville.

 

[Bama Ravens]

Can't say we didn't have supercells. Amazing to have that many of them, and not one is tornado warned.

 

[akt1985]

This event may wind up not even having an EF3 tornado when all is set and done.

 

[Evan]

There's a lot that went wrong today. The first key should've been the southern stream disturbance that kicked off the morning round (which produced the majority of the storm reports here).

I, myself, bit hard on the mesoscale models....

Clearly something is missing or was overlooked. Those storms in NE AL should be going crazy and they are just piddling along.

 

[Equus]

There has been no shortage of large hail today, but the tornado count and coverage has been extremely low. No way we're verifying a high risk, although given the parameters, its issuance was justified imo.

 

[Tyler Penland]

There has been no shortage of large hail today, but the tornado count and coverage has been extremely low. No way we're verifying a high risk, although given the parameters, its issuance was justified imo.

The high risk area wasn't over Alabama. It was over SE GA where they had numerous tornado warned cells.

 

[SilentShadow87]

There's a beauty of a wall cloud/likely tornado on Jennifer McMahan's stream:
http://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/jennifer.mcmahan.html

 

[Equus]

The high risk area wasn't over Alabama. It was over SE GA where they had numerous tornado warned cells.

I know, and there were only nine reports thus far. Some may have been significant, and I suspect we'll come away with a dozen or more tornadoes but I don't think activity was anywhere near what they expected when they issued it.

 

[buckeye05]

This is exactly what I was expecting in terms of potential failure mode; scattered supercells that are unable to develop and establish low level rotation. Like I said, I am always wary of events with power keg thermos and uncertain kinematics, especially in Dixie. Seen Moderate and High Risks bust that way multiple times over the years. Give me a high shear/low cape setup over a high cape/low shear setup any day.

 

[xJownage]

This is exactly what I was expecting in terms of potential failure mode; scattered supercells that are unable to develop and establish low level rotation. Like I said, I am always wary of events with power keg thermos and uncertain kinematics, especially in Dixie. Seen Moderate and High Risks bust that way multiple times over the years. Give me a high shear/low cape setup over a high cape/low shear setup any day.

Largely my experience as a young one in this business, too. Not so much the case at times in tornado alley, however; thinking days like joplin and pilger.

Is it just me or is the Lincoln cell looking really good? It's starting to head into more stable air, but it's a beautiful cell on radar.

 

[SilentShadow87]

I know, and there were only nine reports thus far. Some may have been significant, and I suspect we'll come away with a dozen or more tornadoes but I don't think activity was anywhere near what they expected when they issued it.

In the heat of a significant event LSRs take a backseat if not being put on hold completely.

 

[xJownage]

In the heat of a significant event LSRs take a backseat if not being put on hold completely.

right now this isn't a really significant event.

 

[CSimonds]

I would love to see a "what happened?" paper about this storm system. Meaning - what happened in areas that supposedly had the right parameters but couldn't sustain a single thunderstorm. While areas that were supposedly "worked over" supported training storms. I am fascinated by finding out "what happened" post-events.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

In the heat of a significant event LSRs take a backseat if not being put on hold completely.

Exactly. This was a pretty significant event over the Southern portion of FFC's area. There are several damaged areas that haven't been included in LSR's yet.

 

[SilentShadow87]

right now this isn't a really significant event.

Up until recently we've had 6-8 tornado-warned cells at once. Plus, between about 5 pm and 11 pm on 2/23/16, only about 10 tornadoes were marked in the SPC reports, and it wasn't until the next day that the LSRs started really flooding in.

 

[Lori]

Dewpoint dropped 10 degrees in an hour and pressure is showing 29.49....I think the dry line is here!!! That wind is blowing!



Sent from my iPhone using TalkWeather

 

[warneagle]

Tornado warning, Cleburne Co.

 

[Equus]

Things are intensifying as they move into Georgia, but still not a robust line of violent storms... mostly scattered severe with large hail. Still a pretty nasty weather situation for those in its path.

Also WOW at the wind tonight. Pretty sure I heard a tree come down an hour or so ago in the woods.

 

[CSimonds]

I would love to see a "what happened?" paper about this storm system. Meaning - what happened in areas that supposedly had the right parameters but couldn't sustain a single thunderstorm. While areas that were supposedly "worked over" supported training storms. I am fascinated by finding out "what happened" post-events.

I don't think this system "busted" per se. A few things were "off" in the models to be sure. Just my opinion. I do recall watching the forecasts last night that had this forming right on top of us in N AL and progressing rapidly east. The moderate risk area expanded and contracted based on model data. But the last thing I recall before going to bed was forecasts showing the warm front advecting rapidly to the north and the afternoon system building over the eastern part of Alabama. So, did the warm front move north a good bit slower than projected? Did it take longer for the environment over N AL to destabilize after the morning convection? Did the morning storms set up boundaries? Did the cap hold out longer (bc I don't remember capping as being an impediment in the models) Why did the storms struggle in N AL but intensify over TN and West GA?

When I say I am fascinated by "what happened" after-the-fact is wanting to know the "why's" of what makes some storm systems over perform and some under perform. An example is from about 12 or so years ago. It was a moderate risk day. The morning of the "big event" was beautiful. I took my dog for a walk expecting to hear thunder in the distance. No thunder. As the day wore on nothing was happening. The day ended with absolutely nothing. Not even a thundershower. Afterwards it was told that the strong cap held fast. Another storm system was back in the 90's. Someone will remember this I'm sure. It was either a moderate or high risk day. A tornado watch was issued. The supercells lined up. All healthy on radar. The classic winged V, nice rotation and hook echoes. Warning after warning......wall clouds spotted....but no tornadoes. And so it went....storms rapidly forming and becoming severe - rotating - then...nothing. But one lone storm E of Birmingham spawned one large tornado. After the storms were over, everyone was puzzling. What caused that one storm to put down a tornado and what kept the rest from doing the same? It was later discovered that the surface winds were out of the "wrong" direction and thus there was not enough shear at the lower levels. If the surface winds had been out of the south then it would have been a horrific night. But why the one tornado? A flanking storm had created its own "atmosphere" causing the inflow winds to that one storm to spin all the way to the ground and not just a rotating storm but no tornado. Another fascination is what causes a day that has a slight risk and "not the right ingredients" put down a few tornadoes and surprise everyone? I know my descriptions are not all "scientific" but this part of meteorology fascinates me. Almost a "forensic" meteorology if you will.