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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/5/17-4/6/17

Just saw this posted

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David in SW Blount said:
I haven't checked to see whether people are complaining to Spann and others that their homes haven't been destroyed by a tornado today. I'm sure it's coming!
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They have started. However, I do think the (social) media overhyped this a bit in the Birmingham area. The threat was never an apocalyptic one for Birmingham. The higher risks were east of I-65 and that appears to still be the best chance of severe weather. Can't totally rule out a severe storm over the western half of the state, but the threat is definitely lower in Tuscaloosa, AL than in Macon, GA.

Even if no more bad weather occurs west of I-65, it will be hard for me to call this a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency. Maybe slightly underperformed... but the models and forecasts have been pretty accurate thus far.
 
NorthGaWeather said:
Look, when an EMA Director is reporting confirmed damage, you continue the warning. I couldn't careless if you consider the rotation broad, or jim bob storm chaser doesn't see it. That's just the way it is. In fear of cluttering the thread, this is all I'll say on the matter.
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Wasn't he talking about a tornado emergency as opposed to just a warning? I agree with him that FFC is issuing too many tornado emergencies.
 
Kory said:
Seriously. People complaining that the perceived "Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency" didn't produce tornadoes. God forbid your house doesn't get blown to smithereens!
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Kory do you think a line will develop across TN up into KY like some models are showing? It's been sunny all day here and seems like temps and dew points are there
 
Xenesthis said:
Kory do you think a line will develop across TN up into KY like some models are showing? It's been sunny all day here and seems like temps and dew points are there
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I think we get enough convergence on the dryline we fire off some storms along it in a couple hours.
 
The thing is... she might not be wrong. Let's wait and see if this afternoon tornado threat actually materializes across Alabama. I'm not really seeing it. Dewpoints are falling along the MS/AL line and no storms are forming yet.
 
75/66 with light SE wind in Jasper apparently, suspect that's not a trend but I do wonder if winds will be more favorable for severe weather before the dryline makes it across the state.
 
Anyone know
Where the dry line is? Cause if it's already on the MS/AL line I think it will outrun the window of opportunity
 
Mesoscale Discussion 0442
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017

Areas affected...Portions of central KY...middle
TN...northern/central AL...extreme northwest GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 051802Z - 052030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for significantly severe storms capable of
producing very large hail and tornadoes, along with damaging winds,
is expected to increase around and after 19Z. The issuance of a
Tornado Watch is expected soon.

DISCUSSION...Northward return of modest moisture continues in the
open warm sector of a deep cyclone -- from parts of the TN Valley
region northward to the lower and middle Ohio Valley region. The
leading edge of towering cumulus fields is noted from far northwest
AL into western parts of middle TN and western KY, near a
pre-frontal confluence axis trailing south-southeast of deep low
pressure over eastern MO. Despite the modest moisture, with surface
dewpoints in the 50s to the lower 60s (highest south), moderately
steep midlevel lapse rates around 7.5 C/km will support 500-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE.

Weak capping and strengthening deep ascent ahead of an approaching
midlevel trough will allow convection to gradually increase in the
vicinity of the confluence axis. This activity will mature as it
moves off the confluence axis and into the destabilizing warm
sector -- aided by an appreciable orthogonal component of deep flow
relative to the confluence axis. Strong deep shear and the
aforementioned midlevel lapse rates, encouraging enhanced
storm-scale upward accelerations, will support discrete and
semi-discrete cells capable of very large hail. Also, the
isallobaric response to the deepening surface low to the north will
maintain backed surface winds (pressure falls of 2-4 mb per 2 hours)
across the open warm sector, resulting in long/curved hodographs in
the low levels. Tornadoes are expected, and significant tornadoes
will be possible -- especially as supercells mature within a
corridor from central KY to central/northern AL later this afternoon
into the evening. Damaging wind gusts are also expected.

..Cohen/Hart.. 04/05/2017


ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...

LAT...LON 37798383 36768412 34648533 33288695 33278771 34058776
35668756 37428685 38158492 37798383
 
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