Severe Weather Threat 4/28-4/30

jiharris0220 said:
Sounds about right, honestly never going to have a dude like this in the weather community ever again.

A phd meteorologist and a straight up storm junky at the same time.
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He is genuinely one of the most caring dudes you’ll probably ever meet. My friend had the pleasure of meeting him and said he was nothing but respectful and fun to talk to.
 
AJS said:
He is genuinely one of the most caring dudes you’ll probably ever meet. My friend had the pleasure of meeting him and said he was nothing but respectful and fun to talk to.
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Reed reminds me of my dad. Acts like a fool and very unserious for laughs and entertainment, but very smart and very down to earth when you get to talk to him.
 
AJS said:
He is genuinely one of the most caring dudes you’ll probably ever meet. My friend had the pleasure of meeting him and said he was nothing but respectful and fun to talk to.
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That tracks. When I’ve watched his livestreams recently, he does a great job of handling interactions with people, even in some sketchy situations.

I think there was a moment in the past two weeks where there were people trying to talk with him while they were trying to launch their probe into an active tornado.
 
Tuesday now has an ENH risk from mid-Ohio to mid-NY, with *30% hatched there. Right now it looks like the main threat is hail, though there's still uncertainty:

"Confidence is sufficient in upgrading/expanding categorical risks along with adding a significant severe highlight, most likely for hail at this time."
 

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lurker said:
Tuesday now has an ENH risk from mid-Ohio to mid-NY, with *30% hatched there. Right now it looks like the main threat is hail, though there's still uncertainty:

"Confidence is sufficient in upgrading/expanding categorical risks along with adding a significant severe highlight, most likely for hail at this time."
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yep. Posted this I think.
 
UK_EF4 said:
I still find it hard to trust the CAMS on this one - model guidance agrees the forcing will be impressive. The nose of the 300mb jet is placed nearly ideally relative to the warm sector on Monday afternoon/evening. Considering this will be fast moving, I just really don't see how we don't get at least 1-2 powerful tornadic storms in either IA, MN or WI.

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Often, models may underestimate surface backing with deepening low pressures like the one tomorrow, and so I wouldn't be surprised for the dryline and any prefrontal confluences to be even slightly more convergent than expected.

Models also struggle to initiate convection in drier mid-level environments (Think 3/14, where a fair few number of CAMS were failing to initiate convection into AR just hours before the event, let alone the day before). I think a NAM or FV3 solution is closer to reality where get at least a few storms.

If the CAMS remain adamant all the way up to tomorrow then we may be able to breathe a sigh of relief regarding any tornado risk - but I still pretty uneasy about the whole setup and believe a higher end scenario is most certainly still on the table.
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US_Highway15 said:
I understand on one hand the CAMs over-estimating capping for tomorrow, but the other side of me is also just feeling less and less confidence about the 7+ hour drive being worth it, especially if its an overall model agreement and not just a couple.
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Make the drive. Worst case scenario, get dinner at the Algerian restaurant in Elkader. Is this Heaven? No, it's Iowa.

Edit: it's closed Mondays
 
Ozonelayer said:
He sparked my interest in tornadoes, that's why even if he is just a tad insane, he's always going to have a place in my heart.
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I do enjoy Reed’s streams, and his passion for meteorology and tornados is one of a kind. I really don’t know of anyone else in human history who has personally seen as many tornados as he has. However, he can be goofy at times and his quirks can be funny, which we all point out lol. The man can chase tornados and sniff them out like no one else.

My opinion of him has evolved over time. I wasn’t a big fan of young Reed, such as the college version of himself in the documentary “Tornado Glory”. I also didn’t think highly of his behavior on Storm chasers. I feel like he was a jack @$s to his teammates and drivers, especially Joel. I am curious how much of those disagreements were manufactured at the urging of television producers and they were playing more extreme versions of their real personalities. I think the tv show really brought a lot of negative opinions out about him.

I am a fan of the current quirky version of Reed though. He still has that same passion, but really does seem to be a nice guy and everyone that has met him all say he is quite nice. He’s just doing the standard American male process of aging where he goes from the swashbuckling cowboy in his 20s to a more mellowed out quirky version in his 40s.
 
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