AJS
Member
Broyles absolutely nailed the high risk on April 2nd. He 100% knew what was going to happen that day.
-
Welcome to TalkWeather! We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion. CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER -
Good news! The theme that was recently experiencing issues is back and better than ever. We've set it as the new default, and you can also choose a dark mode! Feel free to switch back to your favorite theme anytime by using the theme selector by clicking this message
Severe Weather Threat 4/28-4/30
- Thread starter MMWX
- Start date
Kds86z
Member
4 Ef3s occurred in the MDT also, so pretty good. Only 1 ef3 in high .
Kds86z
Member
Kds86z
Member
AJS
Member
Dang. I didn’t know today actually had a shot at being an extensive day of tornadoes.
Kds86z
Member
AJS
Member
US_Highway15
Member
DanLarsen34
Member
I mean, Reed is on a “generational” run for seeing tornadoes himself. lol
Should I go into work early tommorow so I can get off earlier in the afternoon and watch the upper Midwest tornado outbreak? Considering it. I expect some crazy radar captures and I want to witness it first hand. I can't be missing these major events. Like I have in the past lol. I missed the Mayfield tornado outbreak and I beat myself up over that one lol.
Kds86z
Member
Yeah I don’t get it lol..
I mean to me personally, the past few years starting in 2023 have been slightly above average, but I don’t get the generational thing lol. Yes, I know 2024 was one of the top years in terms of tornado counts, but our active hurricane season also did some significant lifting on that front.
Kds86z
Member
Oh shoot @UncleJuJu98 . I hope you figure that out. I also missed Dec 21 outbreak. Had no idea it happened until I saw the news? lol. Wasn’t paying attention to severe weather outlooks in December,
Kds86z
Member
I’ve never heard of a 3-5 generational
jiharris0220
Member
Never change Reed.
But moving on, today is yet another boom or Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency scenario where on one hand you get a few or multiple significant tornadoes along the dryline; on the other hand, a nice sunny day, and there’s absolutely nothing in between.
US_Highway15
Member
12z RRFS once again shows Iowa getting nothing while KS/MO gets a couple discrete supercells.
lake.effect
Member
Sucks to see a major metro (Minneapolis) put right in the bullseye of a MOD 15% hatched tornado risk - with additional upgrades possible.
Some interesting tornado risk/ probability math:
The urbanized area of the Minneapolis metro is roughly 60 miles wide and 60 miles long. Since the SPC risk calculations are based on storm probabilities within 25 miles of a point, we can adjust the risk score for the built-up Minneapolis metro tomorrow using some geometry and algebra, we can calculate that the Minneapolis metro area has a 21% chance of a significant tornado tomorrow under the current SPC forecast guidelines.
Some interesting tornado risk/ probability math:
The urbanized area of the Minneapolis metro is roughly 60 miles wide and 60 miles long. Since the SPC risk calculations are based on storm probabilities within 25 miles of a point, we can adjust the risk score for the built-up Minneapolis metro tomorrow using some geometry and algebra, we can calculate that the Minneapolis metro area has a 21% chance of a significant tornado tomorrow under the current SPC forecast guidelines.
Schoeppeya
Member
The latest HRRR does try to initiate some cells today in the Texas panhandle but looks like the cap still wins