Severe Weather Threat 4/28-4/30

[AJS]

Yep. I know he’s a meme and the patron saint of the online wx community, but he’s right more often than he’s wrong by far.

Broyles absolutely nailed the high risk on April 2nd. He 100% knew what was going to happen that day.

 

[Kds86z]

Broyles absolutely nailed the high risk on April 2nd. He 100% knew what was going to happen that day.

4 Ef3s occurred in the MDT also, so pretty good. Only 1 ef3 in high .

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[AJS]

Dang. I didn’t know today actually had a shot at being an extensive day of tornadoes.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[AJS]

Excited to see @ColdFront respond to this lol.

 

[US_Highway15]

Excited to see @ColdFront respond to this lol.

SPC: 5% tornado risk

Reed Timmer: TORNADO OUTBREAK LIKELY TODAY

 

[DanLarsen34]

Excited to see @ColdFront respond to this lol.

I mean, Reed is on a “generational” run for seeing tornadoes himself. lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Should I go into work early tommorow so I can get off earlier in the afternoon and watch the upper Midwest tornado outbreak? Considering it. I expect some crazy radar captures and I want to witness it first hand. I can't be missing these major events. Like I have in the past lol. I missed the Mayfield tornado outbreak and I beat myself up over that one lol.

 

[ColdFront]

Excited to see @ColdFront respond to this lol.

That man….

Curious on what he thinks the start date was on this “3-5 year” period.

 

[Kds86z]

That man….

Curious on what he thinks the start date was on this “3-5 year” period.

Yeah I don’t get it lol..

 

[ColdFront]

Yeah I don’t get it lol..

I mean to me personally, the past few years starting in 2023 have been slightly above average, but I don’t get the generational thing lol. Yes, I know 2024 was one of the top years in terms of tornado counts, but our active hurricane season also did some significant lifting on that front.

 

[Kds86z]

Should I go into work early tommorow so I can get off earlier in the afternoon and watch the upper Midwest tornado outbreak? Considering it. I expect some crazy radar captures and I want to witness it first hand. I can't be missing these major events. Like I have in the past lol. I missed the Mayfield tornado outbreak and I beat myself up over that one lol.

Oh shoot @UncleJuJu98 . I hope you figure that out. I also missed Dec 21 outbreak. Had no idea it happened until I saw the news? lol. Wasn’t paying attention to severe weather outlooks in December,

 

[Kds86z]

I mean to me personally, the past few years starting in 2023 have been slightly above average, but I don’t get the generational thing lol. Yes, I know 2024 was one of the top years in terms of tornado counts, but our active hurricane season also did some significant lifting on that front.

I’ve never heard of a 3-5 generational

 

[jiharris0220]

Never change Reed.

But moving on, today is yet another boom or Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency scenario where on one hand you get a few or multiple significant tornadoes along the dryline; on the other hand, a nice sunny day, and there’s absolutely nothing in between.

 

[US_Highway15]

12z RRFS once again shows Iowa getting nothing while KS/MO gets a couple discrete supercells.

 

[lake.effect]

Sucks to see a major metro (Minneapolis) put right in the bullseye of a MOD 15% hatched tornado risk - with additional upgrades possible.

Some interesting tornado risk/ probability math:

The urbanized area of the Minneapolis metro is roughly 60 miles wide and 60 miles long. Since the SPC risk calculations are based on storm probabilities within 25 miles of a point, we can adjust the risk score for the built-up Minneapolis metro tomorrow using some geometry and algebra, we can calculate that the Minneapolis metro area has a 21% chance of a significant tornado tomorrow under the current SPC forecast guidelines.

 

[Schoeppeya]

The latest HRRR does try to initiate some cells today in the Texas panhandle but looks like the cap still wins

 

[Kds86z]