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Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

I don't normally like to criticize the SPC, but what are we doing here. We have a severe thunderstorm watch in an area that isnt even in a general thunderstorm risk, and we have a PDS Tornado watch in a slight risk. That PDS Tornado watch butts up to a county that is in a 2% non hatch.... really disappointing to see from them.
 
Geez, the LSX office seems very trigger happy with the tornado warnings thus far. None of the storms have been impressive, not to mention being north of the boundary. The latest storm near Wentzville, MO looks very outflow dominant. Not saying it will never do anything, but at least from the radar presentation it is very meh from a tornado perspective.
 
Gotta say, I'm a bit perplexed by the SPC's approach here. Not saying it's wrong by any means, but it strikes me as odd. Precluding a PDS watch in the core of the MDT would be understandable, issuing one outside of it would be understandable, doing both simultaneously seems strange. SPC has, at least in the past, issued early-day WWs in core threat areas for early-day convection that have low probs, but this isn't happening here, with WW #160 in effect until 9 PM CDT. Regarding MDT placement, seems like, based on the 20Z discussion, they're really banking on boundaries laid down by the MCS earlier. Solid thinking, but as far as the overall threat goes, anything that goes up along the dryline could be MDT material, from St. Louis down through Memphis back towards Little Rock. Seems like they're covering the uncertainty on southward extent with the CIG 2, but as far as probabilistic potential goes, a 10% would likely be justified all the way through Arkansas. Again, not criticizing, just airing some thoughts.
...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to extend the Marginal Risk back
into southeastern Kansas/northeastern Oklahoma to account for storms
initiating over the last hour.

The Moderate Risk remains unchanged with this update. The morning
MCS is now moving through eastern Illinois/southern Indiana. Further
west in Missouri and western Illinois, modifying remnant outflow
remains near the St. Louis Metro. Cumulus south of this boundary
across southeastern Missouri into southern Illinois, cumulus within
the warm sector is deepening. Increasing MLCAPE/steepening lapse
rates are nosing northward in southern central Missouri and
south-central Illinois.

Just to the west of the Mississippi River, radar shows occasional
attempts at initiation within the open warm sector. While the
details continue to evolve, it likely that a corridor of conditional
threat for strong-intense tornadoes will develop from the Missouri
Bootheel into southern Illinois/western Kentucky. Within this region
strong daytime heating has led to a volatile air mass, with moderate
to strong MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg and strong deep layer shear. VAD
profiles frm PAH (Paducah, KY) and LSX (St. Louis, MO) indicate a
rich SRH environment of around 200-300 m2/s2 in the 0-1 km layer. It
is likely that supercells capable of all hazards, including
strong-intense tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging
winds. Will develop across this region soon. See MCD571 for
additional information.

The conditional threat for strong tornadoes will extend as far south
as the Arklatex into portions of western Tennessee. Through time,
storm mode will shift to become linear with the southward moving
front, which will bring an increase into the evening of damaging
wind threat. Line embedded tornadoes, some of which may be strong,
will continue to be a threat into the evening.

..Thornton.. 04/27/2026
Click to expand...
IW4ja3j.png
 
Justin Hindman said:
I don’t see how they keep St. Louis in the moderate , I mean it’s rained probably 3 inches, it’s 62 degrees, and it’s north of the boundary.
Boothill northeast Arkansas, southern Illinois, and west Kentucky is the hot zone
Click to expand...
The boundary south of there is moving north again as the flow strengthens in the low levels. There is still hours left to the threat there.
 
Justin Hindman said:
I don’t see how they keep St. Louis in the moderate , I mean it’s rained probably 3 inches, it’s 62 degrees, and it’s north of the boundary.
Boothill northeast Arkansas, southern Illinois, and west Kentucky is the hot zone
Click to expand...
Think you can add nw. Tenn or
Even. Some west tn
 
You
Clancy said:
Gotta say, I'm a bit perplexed by the SPC's approach here. Not saying it's wrong by any means, but it strikes me as odd. Precluding a PDS watch in the core of the MDT would be understandable, issuing one outside of it would be understandable, doing both simultaneously seems strange. SPC has, at least in the past, issued early-day WWs in core threat areas for early-day convection that have low probs, but this isn't happening here, with WW #160 in effect until 9 PM CDT. Regarding MDT placement, seems like, based on the 20Z discussion, they're really banking on boundaries laid down by the MCS earlier. Solid thinking, but as far as the overall threat goes, anything that goes up along the dryline could be MDT material, from St. Louis down through Memphis back towards Little Rock. Seems like they're covering the uncertainty on southward extent with the CIG 2, but as far as probabilistic potential goes, a 10% would likely be justified all the way through Arkansas. Again, not criticizing, just airing some thoughts.
Click to expand...
you have to wonder if there’s a disconnect between how they (SPC) feels about things versus the local offices. Otherwise, it seems like they’re just viewing the forecast as secondary at this point, but you think they’d still want to have their outlook in alignment with their watches? This is one of the most bizarre disconnects I’ve ever seen
 
Justin Hindman said:
I don’t see how they keep St. Louis in the moderate , I mean it’s rained probably 3 inches, it’s 62 degrees, and it’s north of the boundary.
Boothill northeast Arkansas, southern Illinois, and west Kentucky is the hot zone
Click to expand...
I’m more confused about the lack of southward expansion. Some of the area that’s under a PDS Watch is still in a slight risk, which doesn’t make sense.
 
It looks like more than a few storm chasers are heading for the general area of Cape Girardeau, Missouri. Perhaps they're seeing a good chance of an intercept in that area in the near future or something?
 
DanLarsen34 said:
You

you have to wonder if there’s a disconnect between how they (SPC) feels about things versus the local offices. Otherwise, it seems like they’re just viewing the forecast as secondary at this point, but you think they’d still want to have their outlook in alignment with their watches? This is one of the most bizarre disconnects I’ve ever seen
Click to expand...
This is what i was thinking. There has to be disagreements between the SPC and WFOs for things to be this dysfunctional
 
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