Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

[slenker]

All I’ve seen out of this Brian Allen guy is cherry-picking a bad model run from the HRRR (which is now also straight up nowcasting). I think today will be a big one, but I don’t think looking at what the HRRR is doing is a good idea in general anymore now that the event is about to occur. Hopefully I don’t eat crow.

 

[Muwx]

Nasty hook south of KC

 

[Kds86z]

Evan Bentley is live on Ryan hall…

Hope Andy asks about pds watch. Lol

 

[DanLarsen34]

This is what i was thinking. There has to be disagreements between the SPC and WFOs for things to be this dysfunctional

They’ve got Evan Bentley on Ryan Hall’s stream now.

 

[TH2002]

All I’ve seen out of this Brian Allen guy is cherry-picking a bad model run from the HRRR (which is now also straight up nowcasting). I think today will be a big one, but I don’t think looking at what the HRRR is doing is a good idea in general anymore now that the event is about to occur. Hopefully I don’t eat crow.

To some, 'the big one' means a violent tornado.
To others, it means a big earthquake.
To those in the Missouri Bootheel and its immediate surroundings... it's both.

 

[ColdFront]

18z observed sounding out of Springfield isn’t as extreme kinematics wise as this morning, which is to be expected. However, 2400 k/j MLCAPE. Still a tiny bit of a warm nose in there.

 

[SmokeEater]

Meso out for AR and N MS, tornado watch coming.

 

[Tennie]

To some, 'the big one' means a violent tornado.
To others, it means a big earthquake.
To those in the Missouri Bootheel and its immediate surroundings... it's both.

And if you're REALLY unlucky, they occur at the exact same time!

 

[eep]

Based on Bentley's discussion with Ryan they did actually have a consensus on the PDS watch. Wonder if it has something to do with the way the Convective outlooks are designed to be interpreted vs actual on the ground forecasting.

 

[US_Highway15]

Based on Bentley's discussion with Ryan they did actually have a consensus on the PDS watch. Wonder if it has something to do with the way the Convective outlooks are designed to be interpreted vs actual on the ground forecasting.

You can criticize the SPC all you want, but you got to appreciate Bentley's transparency on these decisions they're making.

 

[Muwx]

Based on Bentley's discussion with Ryan they did actually have a consensus on the PDS watch. Wonder if it has something to do with the way the Convective outlooks are designed to be interpreted vs actual on the ground forecasting.

I don't think they would ever admit publicly, especially while the event is ongoing, that there was disagreement between them and the local offices.

 

[Weatherguyx]

Pretty strong wording

 

[US_Highway15]

I don't think they would ever admit publicly, especially while the event is ongoing, that there was disagreement between them and the local offices.

So who actually issues the Tornado Watches? I thought the SPC did.

 

[eep]

I don't think they would ever admit publicly, especially while the event is ongoing, that there was disagreement between them and the local offices.

It did sound like a well co-ordinated effort, I still think the convective outlooks work a bit differently than stuff like tornado watches. I get that he wouldn't want to say that but it also did sound like the SPC themselves actually brought the PDS further south. With Bentley saying that he was "massaging" certain counties further from the risk.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Hrrr is very bullish on north Mississippi soon.

If you live in north Mississippi/ south Tennessee i would prepare for a legit threat of potential long track strong/violent tornadoes

 

[Tennie]

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued for Kalamazoo, MI, despite there not being all that much thunder associated with that storm. Apparently the rear inflow winds in that area are so extreme that the NWS office in that area decided to use a Severe Thunderstorm Warning.

 

[TornadoFan]

This storm near Mexico, MO is looking rather impressive right now.

 

[slenker]

A blip just blew up south of Joplin.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Mexico, MO storm looks fairly ominous. Has a hook and has a pretty good couplet on velocity

 

[Kds86z]

Mexico storm is rapidly organizing, watch for tornado potential..