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Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

All I’ve seen out of this Brian Allen guy is cherry-picking a bad model run from the HRRR (which is now also straight up nowcasting). I think today will be a big one, but I don’t think looking at what the HRRR is doing is a good idea in general anymore now that the event is about to occur. Hopefully I don’t eat crow.
 
All I’ve seen out of this Brian Allen guy is cherry-picking a bad model run from the HRRR (which is now also straight up nowcasting). I think today will be a big one, but I don’t think looking at what the HRRR is doing is a good idea in general anymore now that the event is about to occur. Hopefully I don’t eat crow.
To some, 'the big one' means a violent tornado.
To others, it means a big earthquake.
To those in the Missouri Bootheel and its immediate surroundings... it's both.
 
To some, 'the big one' means a violent tornado.
To others, it means a big earthquake.
To those in the Missouri Bootheel and its immediate surroundings... it's both.
And if you're REALLY unlucky, they occur at the exact same time!
 
Based on Bentley's discussion with Ryan they did actually have a consensus on the PDS watch. Wonder if it has something to do with the way the Convective outlooks are designed to be interpreted vs actual on the ground forecasting.
 
Based on Bentley's discussion with Ryan they did actually have a consensus on the PDS watch. Wonder if it has something to do with the way the Convective outlooks are designed to be interpreted vs actual on the ground forecasting.
You can criticize the SPC all you want, but you got to appreciate Bentley's transparency on these decisions they're making.
 
Based on Bentley's discussion with Ryan they did actually have a consensus on the PDS watch. Wonder if it has something to do with the way the Convective outlooks are designed to be interpreted vs actual on the ground forecasting.
I don't think they would ever admit publicly, especially while the event is ongoing, that there was disagreement between them and the local offices.
 
I don't think they would ever admit publicly, especially while the event is ongoing, that there was disagreement between them and the local offices.
It did sound like a well co-ordinated effort, I still think the convective outlooks work a bit differently than stuff like tornado watches. I get that he wouldn't want to say that but it also did sound like the SPC themselves actually brought the PDS further south. With Bentley saying that he was "massaging" certain counties further from the risk.
 
A Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued for Kalamazoo, MI, despite there not being all that much thunder associated with that storm. Apparently the rear inflow winds in that area are so extreme that the NWS office in that area decided to use a Severe Thunderstorm Warning.
 
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