Timhsv
Member
Just could be I think. Something not letting them explode as I would have suspected so far. But there's plenty of timeHas to be. I think mesoscale analysis was under doing CIN, especially in Oklahoma
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Just could be I think. Something not letting them explode as I would have suspected so far. But there's plenty of timeHas to be. I think mesoscale analysis was under doing CIN, especially in Oklahoma
Yes Sir, I agree of the need of more forcing.That mid-level cap did erode if the aircraft soundings near 21z were correct, but I think better height falls aloft still being well west and low-level dryline convergence still being way west have kept this from getting out of hand today. Storms from north OK into KS and MO have not had that problem because of low-level convergence near the outflow boundary and effective warm front. Storms in northwest TX have not had that lack of low-level convergence because low-level winds down there are backed SHARPLY southeast. Once the height falls move in this evening, you'll have a significant amount of forcing all at once at the same time you'll have deep-layer flow oriented parallel to the surface boundary. That's going to mean quick evolution to a messy/linear mode almost from the jump when we get into the evening hours.
Nope. CAM guidance across the board has been just shy of completely useless with this one.OUN doubling down but so far this has been quiet for central Oklahoma and the metro. Didn’t think I’d be staring at a barren Oklahoma warm sector at 5:47 today
Texas portion has been going off todayIowa Park Texas storm has heck of a hook on it.
Fred, is it just recency bias, or has there been a legitimate string of “below average” years of tornado outbreaks in Oklahoma over the past decade vs the 90s/2000s? And if there has, what is your guess as to the cause?View attachment 25897
Here's the other piece of the puzzle. The initial 700mb cap 18-20z did erode, but additional capping built in around 800mb afterwards.
We were just talking about this in our team's private chat. If you look at tornado history the past several years, we haven't had any really bad tornadoes in the OUN CWA/OKC TV DMA since 2013. From the outside looking in, it would appear that the violent tornadoes decided to retire when Gary England did. They may have decided they didn't want to share on air time with David Payne.Fred, is it just recency bias, or has there been a legitimate string of “below average” years of tornado outbreaks in Oklahoma over the past decade vs the 90s/2000s? And if there has, what is your guess as to the cause?
Haha I grew up on 90s TWC storm stories and seems like every episode was a plains related Oklahoma event that always had Gary England in itWe were just talking about this in our team's private chat. If you look at tornado history the past several years, we haven't had any really bad tornadoes in the OUN CWA/OKC TV DMA since 2013. From the outside looking in, it would appear that the violent tornadoes decided to retire when Gary England did. They may have decided they didn't want to share on air time with David Payne.
We were just talking about this in our team's private chat. If you look at tornado history the past several years, we haven't had any really bad tornadoes in the OUN CWA/OKC TV DMA since 2013. From the outside looking in, it would appear that the violent tornadoes decided to retire when Gary England did. They may have decided they didn't want to share on air time with David Payne.
Yes - all 3 look like they’re trying to grow hooksAre the storms in north Texas, entering into Oklahoma, starting to separate and become more discrete?