Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28, 2024 - (Saturday, Sunday)

[Clancy]

KS storm may produce a tornado soon.

 

[Evan]

Storms firing west of OKC over the last few radar sweeps. Next hour or so should be edifying.

 

[Tanner]

One thing I'm noticing is that the southern Oklahoma storms are really struggling.

 

[Clancy]

Speaks for itself!

 

[tornado examiner]

One thing I'm noticing is that the southern Oklahoma storms are really struggling.

Exactly…indicates that something is wrong with the atmosphere at this time…what could it be…?

 

[172556]

Guess they learned their lesson from 1991...the F5 nearly took out a lot of bombers at McConnell.

Also the 17 Raptors that had to be left at Tyndall for Michael.

 

[Clancy]

One thing I'm noticing is that the southern Oklahoma storms are really struggling.

Kinematics remain fairly weak in that area.

 

[SmokeEater]

AFD from OUN, one of the most ominous ones I've seen in a while.



Dangerous convective environment in place today and into tonight.
Storms have already fired out west with severe and tornado
warnings already issued this morning. A special balloon sounding
issued by the NSSL near Weatherford shows a concerning profile
with 2500 J/kg SBCAPE, 0-1km SRH near 25 kts, effective shear of
60 knots all indicative of a volatile air mass in place. A PDS
Tornado Watch has already been issued for western Oklahoma and
western north Texas with the expectation this will likely be
expanded eastward within the next several hours. Guidance has
trended a bit slower with the forward progression of supercell
thunderstorms, and the latest indication is central Oklahoma
should be impacted by dangerous supercell thundrestorms capable of
producing strong to violent tornadoes within the 3 PM to 9 PM time
frame.

Complicating this is the high potential for very heavy rainfall
which will quickly lead to flash flooding issues where these
storms set up. The WPC has issued a high risk of flash flooding
for parts of east-central Oklahoma, though it should be stressed
that there is uncertainty with the placement of this. Central and
southern Oklahoma are at risk of dangerous flash flooding issues.

Repeated rounds of thunderstorms are expected, and the public
should not let their guard down after a storm has passed.
Many public events are occurring today and with people out of the
office/school, there is a high concern in our office of people
being out on the roads or away from shelters. We urge those who
can to remain near a shelter today as the environment resembles
that of previous historic tornadic outbreaks. Please heed
warnings!

Thompson

 

[Casuarina Head]

We urge those who can to remain near a shelter today as the environment resembles that of previous historic tornadic outbreaks. Please heed warnings!

Thompson

Uhh...does this signify a possible upgrade to HIGH Risk at 20Z? As of now I think MDT looks quite reasonable, given likelihood of messiness mode-wise.

 

[SmokeEater]

Uhh...does this signify a possible upgrade to HIGH Risk at 20Z? As of now I think MDT looks quite reasonable, given likelihood of messiness mode-wise.

Nothing has been mentioned as of yet in NWS Chat, I'll update if it does. But you don't hear wording like that often at all.

 

[rushdude]

It's 78°F now and breezy outside here in DFW. Feeling iffy about weather later

 

[tornado examiner]

Yeah I can already smell that something is very wrong with the atmosphere

 

[Fred Gossage]

Yeah I can already smell that something is very wrong with the atmosphere

Low-level shear has, as has been scheduled for days, not ramped up across the warm sector yet, and the main upper forcing is still back off to the west. The potential higher-end tornado threat was never really supposed to start unfolding yet.

 

[MattPetrulli]

Exactly…indicates that something is wrong with the atmosphere at this time…what could it be…?

The wind profiles are a bit stinky atm (as expected). Definitely not dealing with the profiles we had yesterday. This should become better as the hours go on, but the question is will it be too late?

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Equus]

Bulk shear isn't tremendously strong across the risk area yet (40kt ish) with the dynamics off to the west, probably still a couple hours from seeing good sustained mesos in the heart of the risk area

Thermo environment is good just waiting on shear

 

[Fred Gossage]

The wind profiles are a bit stinky atm (as expected). Definitely not dealing with the profiles we had yesterday. This should become better as the hours go on, but the question is will it be too late?

That's the main thing. Storms need to be able to hold on to being discrete/semi-discrete until the low-level shear does ramp up. I think the stuff near I-44 has a shot at that. I'm not as sure about stuff closer to the dryline to the west.

 

[SmokeEater]

It's 78°F now and breezy outside here in DFW. Feeling iffy about weather later

FWS has been saying your risk down there is under 20% until overnight. That's when the risk down there goes much higher.

 

[rushdude]

I don't know if I should put any faith in the cap.
Ever since I found out earlier this week that the NWS forecasted severe weather for 4/27 of all days, I felt off

 

[MattPetrulli]

That's the main thing. Storms need to be able to hold on to being discrete/semi-discrete until the low-level shear does ramp up. I think the stuff near I-44 has a shot at that. I'm not as sure about stuff closer to the dryline to the west.

Yeah that's what I meant by, "will it be too late", storm mode may be iffy by then.