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Exactly…indicates that something is wrong with the atmosphere at this time…what could it be…?One thing I'm noticing is that the southern Oklahoma storms are really struggling.
Guess they learned their lesson from 1991...the F5 nearly took out a lot of bombers at McConnell.
Uhh...does this signify a possible upgrade to HIGH Risk at 20Z? As of now I think MDT looks quite reasonable, given likelihood of messiness mode-wise.We urge those who can to remain near a shelter today as the environment resembles that of previous historic tornadic outbreaks. Please heed warnings!
Thompson
Nothing has been mentioned as of yet in NWS Chat, I'll update if it does. But you don't hear wording like that often at all.Uhh...does this signify a possible upgrade to HIGH Risk at 20Z? As of now I think MDT looks quite reasonable, given likelihood of messiness mode-wise.
Low-level shear has, as has been scheduled for days, not ramped up across the warm sector yet, and the main upper forcing is still back off to the west. The potential higher-end tornado threat was never really supposed to start unfolding yet.Yeah I can already smell that something is very wrong with the atmosphere
The wind profiles are a bit stinky atm (as expected). Definitely not dealing with the profiles we had yesterday. This should become better as the hours go on, but the question is will it be too late?Exactly…indicates that something is wrong with the atmosphere at this time…what could it be…?
That's the main thing. Storms need to be able to hold on to being discrete/semi-discrete until the low-level shear does ramp up. I think the stuff near I-44 has a shot at that. I'm not as sure about stuff closer to the dryline to the west.The wind profiles are a bit stinky atm (as expected). Definitely not dealing with the profiles we had yesterday. This should become better as the hours go on, but the question is will it be too late?
FWS has been saying your risk down there is under 20% until overnight. That's when the risk down there goes much higher.It's 78°F now and breezy outside here in DFW. Feeling iffy about weather later
Yeah that's what I meant by, "will it be too late", storm mode may be iffy by then.That's the main thing. Storms need to be able to hold on to being discrete/semi-discrete until the low-level shear does ramp up. I think the stuff near I-44 has a shot at that. I'm not as sure about stuff closer to the dryline to the west.