Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28, 2024 - (Saturday, Sunday)

[TornadoFan]

 

[lake.effect]

Posting for posterity

 

[jiharris0220]

My apologies, I meant 15% but the fingers typed something else. My point still remains. This isn’t a conservative forecast, it is balanced against all factors. It’s actually an excellent forecast for 13z. There are still some initial unknowns, but multiple tornadic supercells appear probable, some producing significant tornado families, potentially modulated by storm mode toward evening.

It’s not a conservative forecast, but I’m saying it’s conservative considering the environment due to over clustering of convection.

The only thing keeping this from being a higher risk is the storm mode which the NWS is concerned about.
Which is what’s really worrying me because now it seems even the hrrr is trending more discrete.
I really hope this doesn’t make what happened yesterday seem tame.

 

[warneagle]

winds are pretty unidirectional at the moment at TOP but you can see the same deep moisture, stout EML, steep mid-level lapse rates you see on the OUN sounding.

 

[Clancy]

When was the last time a 90% occur on CWASP?

Haven't seen one since I first started using it, that I can remember.

 

[jiharris0220]

The EML being stronger than expected has basically nuked the possibility of morning convection limiting instability for today.
The only convection to be seen are weak scattered showers that aren’t even located in the warm sector.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

Jeff Duda(stormtrack site owner also has a PhD) posted this nugget last night on today’s threat. However, I haven’t seen any of the SPC outlooks mention this so it may already be null and void this morning. But wave timing is a good thing to keep in mind:


If the TX overnight convection never materializes, that could imply the wave has not yet arrived, which could imply that it is late in ejecting. Thursday (the 25th) seemed to underperform a bit, and I suspect it is because the wave ejected too late. Perhaps that may have influenced the timing of this next one so that it might also arrive a bit late, and after the best destabilization has manifested.

 

[TornadoFan]

The EML being stronger than expected has basically nuked the possibility of morning convection limiting instability for today.
The only convection to be seen are weak scattered showers that aren’t even located in the warm sector.
View attachment 25805

Well, thats not good.

 

[tornado examiner]

so outside of storm mode are there any fail modes still immediately present?

 

[Mike S]

Trying to figure out how to do that. I don't think I have the ability. @WesL ??

Wes has a strict process to verify met status in order to maintain the integrity of the met tag. I've alerted him and he'll see this as well in order to get that ball rolling. I look forward to seeing Andy with the tag.

 

[TornadoFan]

Not a great sign seeing dewpoints already in the mid to upper sixties across the risk area.

 

[SmokeEater]

HRRR continues to look, well? Not good....

 

[TornadoFan]

Now the storms out in the Texas panhandle are doing something.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Tanner]

It's 11am EDT..for reference.

 

[TornadoFan]

It's 11am EDT..for reference.

Not good

 

[Tanner]

Whenever storms start producing significant hazards (most notably tornadoes) this EARLY into the day, you almost know it's going to be a long day. Yesterday did the same thing with the early storms in Texas and Nebraska.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[atrainguy]

Whenever storms start producing significant hazards (most notably tornadoes) this EARLY into the day, you almost know it's going to be a long day. Yesterday did the same thing with the early storms in Texas and Nebraska.

Yeah, I was just thinking that. Yesterday went crazy early. Ominous sign.

 

[cincywx]

the rotation on this one has slowly increased into the lower levels over the past thirty minutes.