tornado examiner
Member
Okay yeah…today is possibly gonna go high risk…maaaybe.
When was the last time a 90% occur on CWASP?
When was the last time a 90% occur on CWASP?
I disagree to an extent. You don’t have a 15% hatched TOR MDT if storm mode is a significant factor. All Rich and John are saying is that a semi-discrete mode will be the rule today, much like yesterday. There are some concerns about discrete/semi-discrete mode persisting into the early evening though. Central Oklahoma should see at least one and maybe multiple rounds of tornadic supercells.Reading the discussion, they really expect storm mode to be a significant limiting factor.
I cannot bring myself to a memory.When was the last time a 90% occur on CWASP?
They have a 15% hatched TOR MDT. Which is quite conservative for the environment, (understandably so) I wouldn’t be surprised if they went higher later on today if trends point to more discrete.I disagree to an extent. You don’t have a 30% hatched TOR MDT if storm mode is a significant factor. All Rich and John are saying is that a semi-discrete mode will be the rule today, much like yesterday. There are some concerns about discrete/semi-discrete mode persisting into the early evening though. Central Oklahoma should see at least one and maybe multiple rounds of tornadic supercells.
This may be a tad off topic for this thread but relevant at hand… storm mode was messy in spots yesterday, but the storms still produced and had no trouble lasting for hours. I know a linear like mode can be a death sentence sometimes for storms, but they thrived yesterday in that mode.I disagree to an extent. You don’t have a 30% hatched TOR MDT if storm mode is a significant factor. All Rich and John are saying is that a semi-discrete mode will be the rule today, much like yesterday. There are some concerns about discrete/semi-discrete mode persisting into the early evening though. Central Oklahoma should see at least one and maybe multiple rounds of tornadic supercells.
My apologies, I meant 15% but the fingers typed something else. My point still remains. This isn’t a conservative forecast, it is balanced against all factors. It’s actually an excellent forecast for 13z. There are still some initial unknowns, but multiple tornadic supercells appear probable, some producing significant tornado families, potentially modulated by storm mode toward evening.They have a 15% hatched TOR MDT. Which is quite conservative for the environment, (understandably so) although o wouldn’t be surprised if they went higher later on today if trends point to more discrete.
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Am I in the Moderate Risk area? I can't tell but it looks like I may be just outside of it or on the line of it.
Lot of connective feedback on that sounding so I wouldn’t take it at face value.Here's a snippet sounding from the 12z HRRR in Oklahoma this evening. Not cherry-picked either, there's numerous such locations over the evening hours. Nearly perfectly curved low-level hodographs, ~3000 SBCAPE, nearly 100,000 SigSvr parameter (which I don't think I've ever seen before), 1149 DCAPE, 7.4 C/km 700-500 Lapse Rate, a super high 26 on the SCP, and STP fix and STP cin between 6 and 9...those are some of the highest readings I've seen on soundings in recent memory. I think this evening from maybe 4 PM CDT to midnight or so, it could be a very rough time in Oklahoma and surrounding areas.