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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/26-5/1/17

Tornado warning including Fort Smith, AR. Might need a warning soon on the cell to its north as well. Finally getting some storms popping back along the front I guess.
 
I know there is talk about the SPC "blowing it" on the potential events lately that didn't materialize for various reasons. I just hope the SPC doesn't get discouraged by this but instead continues to forecast what potentially could happen and warns us rather than second guess themselves and go conservative in their forecasts! I'd rather them forecast a High risk and miss than forecast a marginal and it be a High risk event catching us off guard. They have a lot on their plate!
 
Looks like things eventually verified quite well except where they had a 10% TOR earlier (I think they dropped it to 5) as this seems to have been quite a day for large hail reports at least. Really, it seems to be the tornado threat they've overplayed both on Wednesday and on this event; wind and hail were pretty widespread both days, but the 15% hatched and the 10% tornado risks just failed to play through at all.
 
Me senses very large hail possible. D/FW folks- may be another day just like 6/13/12.
 

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Just casually checking on radar, have had a few good couplets out there today.
 
Confirmed "large and extremely dangerous" tornado southwest of Canton, TX.

These storms in east Texas are moving into an environment with favorable thermodynamics and strong helicity values.
 
warneagle said:
Confirmed "large and extremely dangerous" tornado southwest of Canton, TX.

These storms in east Texas are moving into an environment with favorable thermodynamics and strong helicity values.
Click to expand...

Now there is another large one just east of Canton.

C-nfusqUQAAJ_AM
 
Yeah, there was an enormous TDS with that; it lingered after the couplet weakened so maybe the radar was catching the debris falling? Would not be surprised if it were a significant tornado.

I would love a radar in the Tyler, TX area.
 
Looks like all the vehicles in that car lot has damage....
 
I just pray it doesn't get really bad in Memphis tonight...my only son is right outside there in Millington in a wrestling match.
 
BMX has an excellent discussion about today/tonight's threat. Biggest issue is that models are all over the board, as far as timing.

Model inconsistencies seem to have really plaqued this severe weather season, such as the April 5th threat and now this one.
 
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