Severe Weather Threat 4/25-4/26, 2024 - (Thursday, Friday)

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

I can’t make heads or tails of the point you’re trying to make, but I will say as monstrous as it looked, I’ve seen nothing to indicate EF5 damage so far, contextually, structurally or otherwise.

Same. On the other hand, Those Iowa storms looked just as monstrous, especially the one that looked like a carbon copy physically of Fairdale. it’s going to be an interesting few days.

 

[A Guy]

I can’t make heads or tails of the point you’re trying to make, but I will say as monstrous as it looked, I’ve seen nothing to indicate EF5 damage so far, contextually, structurally or otherwise.

None of the pictures posted here so far I would even nail on for EF4, even without accounting for the 'swept away completely 165 MPH EF3' that's in vogue. Of course this will probably change, but it's pretty silly to try judging ratings at the stage. No-one's had time to look at things properly yet.

 

[andyhb]

Of the damage I've seen, the Minden tornado is probably the strongest candidate for EF4 that I've seen. Essentially wiped out a whole block of buildings on the edge of town there.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[atrainguy]

 

[Clancy]

 

[TornadoFan]

All I can say is this was one of the most prolific Plains tornado outbreaks in a very long time.

 

[TornadoFan]

Good lord.

 

[Timhsv]

No judgement on SPC, but this was a Moderate Risk day, not an Enhanced Risk.

 

[atrainguy]

How many times has Des Moines been under a tornado warning tonight...

 

[buckeye05]

Sounds like there may have been a significant tornado in Monroe, IA as well.

 

[Evan]

None of the pictures posted here so far I would even nail on for EF4, even without accounting for the 'swept away completely 165 MPH EF3' that's in vogue. Of course this will probably change, but it's pretty silly to try judging ratings at the stage. No-one's had time to look at things properly yet.

I generally agree, however, there was ample clear and close-up video today of what looked to be tornadoes with violent motion. I haven't seen any obvious photos of EF-4+ type damage, though. But, I've seen a few shots that indicate a few of these tornadoes could've poked their heads above the 165mph line. Not saying they did -- only that the aforementioned violent motion, plus some of the initial photographic evidence, shows the potential for a tornado in this outbreak to break the 165mph line.

Nonetheless, like you said, it's extremely early. Without numerous photos and context it's almost always a fool's errand to speculate more concretely unless and until there's significant photographic evidence.

With all that said, I won't be shocked if we see some of the dreaded 160-165mph rated tornadoes. That's simply a common outcome over the last decade unless there's pretty overwhelming evidence. Whether people agree or not with the way ratings are handled these days there's no longer any real argument against the position that ratings criteria has tightened and evidence standards have been raised.

 

[A Guy]

Looks like this footage, taken from somewhere near the intersection of Tamarack and 354th street, and the drone footage in the tweet that @jiharris0220 posted here show the centre of the tornado passed through the warehouses on the south-eastern edge of the town.

I can see two exposed basements in the drone footage: one on the left that's a classic slider - No. 517 Main has crossed Depot Street and bumped into No. 603, and one right of centre where No. 607 has disintegrated, but the modest damage to No. 605 indicates a possible slider as well. The last thing on the far right was a concrete block building or garage.



And yes I know I'm engaging in the kind of speculation I literally just said not to do. I'll wait for more in the morning.

Also the chase footage is a clown show. 'Yes, let's have an argument'.

 

[buckeye05]

NWS Omaha will be responsible for rating many of the most significant tornadoes of this outbreak. They did a pretty damn good job with the Pilger EF4 family and went with a pretty high wind speed. They took contextual evidence into account too. With that said, Pilger was a long time ago, so I have no way of knowing if they have different people surveying at that office, or have gotten caught up in the "how low can we get the wind speed estimate" approach other offices have.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

NWS Omaha will be responsible for rating many of the most significant tornadoes of this outbreak. They did a pretty damn good job with the Pilger EF4 family and went with a pretty high wind speed. They took contextual evidence into account too. With that said, Pilger was a long time ago, so I have no way of knowing if they have different people surveying at that office, or have gotten caught up in the "how low can we get the wind speed estimate" approach other offices have.

I actually don't believe any of the Pilger tornado family were all rated EF4 with no assigned windspeed. Correct me if I am wrong.

 

[buckeye05]

I actually don't believe any of the Pilger tornado family were rated EF4 with no assigned windspeed. Correct me if I am wrong.

All four of the EF4s were given peak wind speed estimates of 190 on the DAT.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

All four of the EF4s were given peak wind speed estimates of 190 on the DAT.

Okay I just looked at the Public Information Statement and never did check the DAT on those. My bad.

 

[buckeye05]

I'll say this. I remember the Pilger event clear as day, and it was quickly apparent that we were looking at a high-end event, and the extreme intensity of the damage was much more apparent early on. By that evening there were photos on social media showing much more violent-looking damage than anything I have seen from this outbreak yet.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but NWS Omaha hasn't really had a violent, or violent candidate event in their area since then have they?

 

[A Guy]

Reports have now topped 100

I'll say this. I remember the Pilger event clear as day, and it was quickly apparent that we were looking at a high-end event, and the extreme intensity of the damage was much more apparent early on. By that evening there were photos of damage on social media showing much more violent-looking than anything I have seen from this outbreak yet.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but NWS Omaha hasn't really had a violent, or violent candidate event in their area since then have they?

They haven't even had an EF3.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

I'll say this. I remember the Pilger event clear as day, and it was quickly apparent that we were looking at a high-end event, and the extreme intensity of the damage was much more apparent early on. By that evening there were photos on social media showing much more violent-looking damage than anything I have seen from this outbreak yet.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but NWS Omaha hasn't really had a violent, or violent candidate event in their area since then have they?

100 reports of tornadoes on Friday. I would likely say there were several long tracked EF3 tornadoes and possibly an EF4 or two. I shudder to think what would have happened if the temperatures and dewpoints had been 5.0°F to 7.0°F warmer.