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Severe Weather Threat 4/25-4/26, 2024 - (Thursday, Friday)

lake.effect

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Models seem to be locking in an upper-end threat materializing in central OK/KS on the 26th. After that, there's quite a bit of disagreement.

Check out these soundings from the latest GFS and GDPS runs, around OKC metro on Friday afternoon:
OKC_GDPS.png
okc_gfs.png

UKMET appears to have an even higher end parameter space at the same time/location but I can't grab the sounding.
 
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One thing for sure , there looks be plenty deep moisture return out ahead of this

The GFS has been showing some potential moisture issues for a few days. The Gulf gets scoured by a cold front over the next couple of days (now through about Tuesday afternoon). Previous runs were showing the northeastern Gulf in particular being quite slow to moisten. Today's 12Z run is somewhat of an improvement in that regard; still a lot of 50s over the Southeast and even the Florida peninsula by Friday afternoon, though.
 
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The GFS has been showing some potential moisture issues for a few days. The Gulf gets scoured by a cold front over the next couple of days (now through about Tuesday afternoon). Previous runs were showing the northeastern Gulf in particular being quite slow to moisten. Today's 12Z run is somewhat of an improvement in that regard; still a lot of 50s over the Southeast and even the Florida peninsula by Friday afternoon, though.
Agreed - a lot of possible issues to be worked out.

After so many underperforming events this year, I’m not getting excited for a D6 threat until I see it verifying with my own two eyes the day of. How many of the previous threats this year had “that look” 5-7 days out?
 
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12Z Euro certainly looks like a potentially high-end setup for Friday based off the products I can see via Pivotal free (surface MSLP, dewpoint, 500/700/850mb wind/temp). However, IMO it and the GFS seem to have flip-flopped recently in which one more often advertises high-end severe setups in the medium range that downtrend with time.
 
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Friday looks interesting. Both GFS and Euro show a potent negatively tilted shortwave ejecting through eastern NE into IA with a deep surface low and solid moisture in the warm sector. Thinking about taking that day off so I'm not working 3AM-noon then marathon driving to the target area and immediately switching to intercept mode since storms have already fired like I usually am on chase days unless I'm on vacation (such as last Tuesday, and 3/31/23 although it actually worked in my favor that day) or the target is less than 3 hours away.
 
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Friday looks interesting. Both GFS and Euro show a potent negatively tilted shortwave ejecting through eastern NE into IA with a deep surface low and solid moisture in the warm sector. Thinking about taking that day off so I'm not working 3AM-noon then marathon driving to the target area and immediately switching to intercept mode since storms have already fired like I usually am on chase days unless I'm on vacation (such as last Tuesday, and 3/31/23 although it actually worked in my favor that day) or the target is less than 3 hours away.
Should get some nice cells fire just east of a pronounced dry line Friday ….
 

lake.effect

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Model consensus growing for a multi-day, upper end severe weather episode from Friday 4/27 through next Tuesday.
Looking for a failure mode and can't find one. Ample CAPE everywhere, plenty of shear, favorable LCL heights and limited capping.

That said, there could be two factors that either reduce the ceiling on this system:

1. The highest shear does seem to be displaced from the best CAPE during some the 27th-1st period. But for most of that time frame, some shear is present in most of the warm sector. Otherwise, shear and CAPE are overlapping quite well.

2. Ongoing convection could reduce atmospheric recovery. However, model's don't seem to be concerned with moisture quality. This is a slow moving storm and very moist area will be advecting into the warm sector very efficiently for several days.

Interestingly, NE IL/SE WI (Chicago, Milwaukee, Madison) area might be a good chase target for late evening on April 27th and perhaps again on April 28th.
 
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Model consensus growing for a multi-day, upper end severe weather episode from Friday 4/27 through next Tuesday.
Looking for a failure mode and can't find one. Ample CAPE everywhere, plenty of shear, favorable LCL heights and limited capping.

That said, there could be two factors that either reduce the ceiling on this system:

1. The highest shear does seem to be displaced from the best CAPE during some the 27th-1st period. But for most of that time frame, some shear is present in most of the warm sector. Otherwise, shear and CAPE are overlapping quite well.

2. Ongoing convection could reduce atmospheric recovery. However, model's don't seem to be concerned with moisture quality. This is a slow moving storm and very moist area will be advecting into the warm sector very efficiently for several days.

Interestingly, NE IL/SE WI (Chicago, Milwaukee, Madison) area might be a good chase target for late evening on April 27th and perhaps again on April 28th.
Possible crap vection being one them …. have to watch that early Friday morning ….
 
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