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Severe Weather Threat 4/25-4/26, 2024 - (Thursday, Friday)

cincywx

cincywx

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2024

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...

..SUMMARY

A FEW TORNADOES, INCLUDING A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES, ISOLATED
VERY LARGE HAIL (GREATER THAN 2 INCH DIAMETER) AND ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM
NORTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN MISSOURI, EASTERN
OKLAHOMA, WESTERN ARKANSAS, AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

..NE/IA/MO/KS

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS
KS/NE. A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL NE, WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KS. A
CORRIDOR OF AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
OVER SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHEAST KS, WHERE DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE MLCAPE VALUES AND RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY
MID-AFTERNOON. BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS IN THE BENT-BACK REGION OF THE LOW, WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN IA AND NORTHWEST MO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.

..OK/MO/AR

A LARGE NOCTURNAL MCS THAT AFFECTED MUCH OF OK HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED
AND DEPARTED, WITH RAPID NORTHWARD RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. BY MID-AFTERNOON, MID-UPPER
60S DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER EAST-CENTRAL OK.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES TO PROMOTE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TORNADOES.
STORMS WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND NORTHWEST AR
THIS EVENING. CAM GUIDANCE VARIES ON COVERAGE OF STORMS, BUT
PARAMETERS APPEAR QUITE STRONG AND WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO ENH GIVEN
THE CONDITIONAL RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.

..NORTHEAST TX

A THIRD AREA OF SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LIES ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL TX TODAY. A CLUSTER OF
SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS HAS FORMED THIS MORNING TO THE WEST OF WACO,
TX. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TX.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR PERSISTENT SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES AND RISKS OF A FEW TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. GIVEN
THE NUMBER OF STORMS AND THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, HAVE ALSO
UPGRADED THIS NARROW CORRIDOR TO ENH.

..HART/LYONS.. 04/26/2024
Click to expand...
 
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