lake.effect
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I'd be skeptical of the NAM too but it's not far from the thermodynamics on most of the globals.View attachment 25567
And this is why we don't trust the NAM and its derivatives for thermodynamics this far out.
I'd be skeptical of the NAM too but it's not far from the thermodynamics on most of the globals.View attachment 25567
And this is why we don't trust the NAM and its derivatives for thermodynamics this far out.
That forecast shear is doing a lot of work. 1126 0-3 km SRHSounding taken from southern Missouri, 84hours out. Yeah, I hope the nam is out for lunch on this one. Only failure mode for this particular run and sounding is the overly deep moister which promotes too much crowding.
I think that sounding may be a tad convectively contaminated.That forecast shear is doing a lot of work. 1126 0-3 km SRH
What I can find was in November 2022, but I'm pretty confident we had one more recent, but I can't find it.When's the last time the SPC did an unscheduled Day 3 update?
UPDATE:What I can find was in November 2022, but I'm pretty confident we had one more recent, but I can't find it.
Per Trey, Thursday’s event is more dependent on “just in time moisture” while Saturday’s threat will already have that moisture in place.I think Saturday has the highest ceiling and, if model trends continue, could possibly justify a high risk.
The machine learning models agree. CSU-MLP maxes out the scale. Look at the huge swath of land under high probability significant weather:
Yeah, the nam has a weird forcing bias, in which all convection that fires along any boundary/front will just instantly go linear.12Z 3KM NAM depiction for Friday afternoon in NE/IA is interesting, although unlikely to verify. It fires an intense bow echo at 20Z, which breaks up into semi-discrete supercells at 21Z and then back to a bow echo by 22Z.
Yeah, the nam has a weird forcing bias, in which all convection that fires along any boundary/front will just instantly go linear.
Good ol’ nam and it’s quirks, lol.
Or not. Still an enhanced.Should see a day 2 moderate risk in southern plains tomorrow outlook …. The hodos I’m looking at are insane
Or not. Still an enhanced.
Too many question marks for tomorrow to go moderate, could easily be a cap bust.Should see a day 2 moderate risk in southern plains tomorrow outlook …. The hodos I’m looking at are insane
Talking bout Saturday’s risk, My badToo many question marks for tomorrow to go moderate, could easily be a cap bust.