What's the location for that sounding?
It's interesting to me that you're kind of downplaying the hype for mid week, but here you're basically doing the opposite. I trust you and your analyses implicitly, even if you're rarely talking about the areas I'm concerned about (I chase mostly Georgia, this time though I intend to get into Alabama), so this is a little concerning (or exciting if you're a chaser like me).
I think that even if tomorrow afternoon verifies at full potential, it's probably still a SLGT Risk/tornado watch type of event. I just think it's a little more possible that it may realize something close to that tomorrow than it is in most events where we have a coastal threat, morning non-severe here, and then we wait for afternoon recovery. It's still very questionable and has substantial bust potential though. The thing next week has a more significant ceiling (strong tornadoes), but there's a LOT of uncertainty with it, and even on the most bullish solutions, it doesn't look quite as scary here locally as it's being made out to be by some.
Certainly, thanks
Despite it being messy, at least on 18z, HRRR continues to put out a pretty decent environment for tornadoes tomorrow in that hatched, so seems like a good just incase kind of call for SPC.
There's very substantial mid-level dry air behind the morning round tomorrow, and the core of the upper-level jet will be directly overhead and will be very westerly. There's no way we don't both clear out the morning stuff and get breaks in the cloud cover. The main question mark is whether we have the low-level convergence and lift needed to get updrafts to survive that degree of mid-level dry air. The more I'm looking at things, the more iffy I'm thinking it is for areas west of I-65, even if the surface winds stay more backed. They quickly veer toward southwesterly just above the surface. Any convergence likely won't be too deep through the boundary layer.
