In setups like this, you will usually hear that the afternoon threat just ahead of the front is all conditional based on how much the atmosphere recovers behind the morning activity, and then when things fail to fire, you hear people blindly say that the atmosphere just did not grow unstable again. More often than not, that is actually not true. The thing that usually fouls up afternoon redevelopment on days like this is a focus for low-level convergence is taken away from the frontal zone by the morning action and how it shifts the low-level jet away from the area by the afternoon. Because of this, you often get winds that veer too much just above the surface, and you are left with not enough low-level lift along the front to get sustained updrafts to form in the mid-level dry air. It's highly unsurprising that the models are recovering CAPE values by afternoon the way they are. They usually do in setups like this. Mid-level dry air will allow the sun to break out, and portions of north Alabama may be in the mid 70s by 3:00 or 4:00 tomorrow afternoon. The question is where there will be enough lift to get storms to refire. An awful lot of the CAMs think that at least low-topped discrete storms refire in the afternoon. You're not looking for big discrete storms with massive UH tracks in a setup like that.
Particularly telling to me is that the 12k (non-CAM) NAM fires off a few discrete updrafts in that environment, and its whole convective parameterization scheme is explicitly designed, intentionally, to not initialize convection in mid-level dry air (the reason why we see it underdo convective coverage in a lot of EML tornado setups). It's also telling me that the surface winds stay backed to the SSE ahead of the afternoon front/pressure trough even on the models that often underdo low-level backing and isallobaric responses (GFS and NAM).
