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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

I am saddened by the damage and loss of life we got yesterday, but thrilled that the worst case scenario we saw before the event depicted by the HRRR did not verify. I think moving away from the idea that meteorologists should be held to account when they relay what the best technology we have is depicting when that doesn't verify is best.

I will say though that I have one criticism of some coverage of this event - the use I saw of the base velocity product instead of the storm relative velocity product. There were examples yesterday where SRV was clearly showing couplets that were being missed and even downplayed as insignificant on air. When you can't find the rotation on base velocity and then it gets labeled as "just not that impressive" when there is a well defined couplet on SRV, that's a big problem that can lead to lower lead times for people in the path.
 
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Yeah, I think it’s safe to say we can go ahead and do the after action report on this one.

Did the high risk verify? Without question. You could’ve put a high risk out on both days and both would’ve verified easily.

This isn’t criticism of the SPC, who did tremendous. I think you can see why the SPC’s 2 day high risk is extremely rare, it’s a little bit of a gamble. Models can easily change in 12-24 hours, and that’s exactly what happened. Had they had waited and saw the models back off a little, I really think you would’ve seen them center the high more west and south and trim it back on Alabama.

This outbreak was like a mix of 4/28/2014 and Easter 2020. 4/28/2014 like With training cells on a track over Mississippi. Easter 2020 with a huge rain shield with major tornados occurring south of it.

The CAMS actually nailed this, especially the HRRR. Looking back, on the 0Z runs the night before, all the CAMS had all locked in and were in agreement on the more “linear” mode. Even the FV3, which should’ve been a bit of a signal.

A couple of things I need to do better of when evaluating events is look at the synoptic scale up until the event starts. Once the CAMs got in range, I focused too much on the reflectivity and helicity steaks, instead of also looking at the upper air patterns. One thing Trey called out in his video was how the main jet was slower than modeled and the trough geometry had slightly changed thus limiting more discrete OWS activity. Another thing I’m going to do from now, not even think of comparing events to 4/27/11 or 4/3/74 until that event is completely underway and it’s blatantly obvious. I started to trend that way on this event, especially after seeing some of the models.

The last thing is this: I noticed a few guys a little snarky before the event began because I was pointing out the more linear trend on the models and also what Trey had said regarding the ceiling. I think it’s entirely reasonable to discuss that, no one was saying the event wasn’t dangerous. That was obvious. But it should be fair game to bring those up, especially when this event looked historic not even 12 hours before, without it being dismissed as “I don’t care what so and so says”(you know who you are that was saying this yesterday),or “just throw the models out”. It’s relevant to the event, and was actually a trend that should be discussed without some of the hand wringing some of you did. The pearl clutching when someone just mentions what others are saying on an event’s ceiling is unnecessary.
 
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Surprised more people haven't donated to the $500 goal for this site. Even just $5. Impossible to overstate how valuable of a resource it's been and I think they mentioned having to upgrade equipment from the uptick in traffic this storm caused. Now that I've found this place I'd hate to lose it, or any of the incredible treasure trove of data within these threads.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Surprised more people haven't donated to the $500 goal for this site. Even just $5. Impossible to overstate how valuable of a resource it's been and I think they mentioned having to upgrade equipment from the uptick in traffic this storm caused. Now that I've found this place I'd hate to lose it, or any of the incredible treasure trove of data within these threads.
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Seconded - and those of you who I see ALL the time in here <cough cough> have very little excuse to not be sustaining members. Cheaper than going to Starbucks once a month.
 
I think the failure modes we saw were discussed all week, but just seemed less and less likely as the storm approached and then immediately very likely the morning of. It seems the Euro probably verified better than the GFS. Some of the pictures from the past few days were certainly historic.
 
It really has to be a challenge deciding whether the model has lost touch or the dynamics have changed. And I would venture to say the best route on that front is better safe than sorry.

Friday was certainly the most impressive- at least in my eyes and on the storm report scoreboard (if there is such a thing). On Wednesday, if you had told me that I would have been surprised.

I am honestly wondering if 4/27 and a few of the other major outbreaks have adjusted (unrealistically) the ceiling for many. Similar to becoming an Alabama fan in the late 2000’s, your expectations are always national championship or else. Maybe it’s on US (professionals/enthusiast/and general public) to readjust our expectations for what a high end risk looks like. I think most of us have to be honest with ourselves and even if we don’t vocally state the comparison, it’s hard to not use that as a benchmark.
 
Like @ColdFront said, this was quite similar to Easter 2020 and had shades of 4/28/14. I expect it'll likely end up being a prolific outbreak and up there in the ranks, and unfortunately it was definitely one of the deadlier outbreaks in some time. Super Outbreak scenario, which I do firmly believe was a reasonable thing to wager being on the table at one time, didn't happen, which is good. There were likely a myriad of mesoscale factors that played into that. I think convective overcrowding in MS, which resulted in a very Easter Outbreak style mode of numerous, closely clustered intense supercells sharing space with lots of showers, was a strong influence.

Storm movement could have been a factor as well. These storms moved NNE for much of the day, and seemed to promote very strong but cyclic tornadic activity. You could notice at various points through the day, storms which engaged in more rightward movement seemed conducive to tornadogenesis. For example, the segment which prompted a tornado warning for us in Georgia exhibited increasingly rightward movement and caused a brief but very impressive supercellular structure to develop. I hope FFC sends a survey team out to Paulding because there's a good chance something was down out there. After moving over Dallas, that storm tacked itself onto its own inflow and jogged north, eventually becoming absorbed into the line, which was still moving NNE.

Suffice it to say, the previous 2 days could've both been High Risks and they would've verified handily. SPC's placement of yesterday's High was, in hindsight, really good despite concerns that it wasn't far north enough. Curious if they considered the possibility of an Easter-style rain shield. It will probably end up being a historic outbreak in similar fashion to 3/31/23 and Easter 2020, which were prolific and unique events, and #3 and #4 by tally of tornadoes, respectively. There's also zero doubt about the violent capacity of these tornadoes. I'm sure there will be plenty of ratings discussion in the coming days and there'll probably be a flurry of EF-3s and some EF-4s.
 
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I’d say the High Risk verified, just because there was no super outbreak or EF5s doesn’t make the event a b-word. There were numerous violent tornadoes, thankfully they weren’t on the ground for hundreds of miles though.

4/3/74 and 4/27/11 are generational outbreaks for a reason, like the Superstorm of 93, everything has to lineup perfectly for events like that to take place.

That said, the people that got hit by tornadoes the past few days? That’s their April 27th.
 
RollTide18 said:
I’d say the High Risk verified, just because there was no super outbreak or EF5s doesn’t make the event a b-word. There were numerous violent tornadoes, thankfully they weren’t on the ground for hundreds of miles though.

4/3/74 and 4/27/11 are generational outbreaks for a reason, like the Superstorm of 93, everything has to lineup perfectly for events like that to take place.

That said, the people that got hit by tornadoes the past few days? That’s their April 27th.
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And all the NWS mets, SPC forecasters and weather nerds said Amen.
 
RollTide18 said:
I’d say the High Risk verified, just because there was no super outbreak or EF5s doesn’t make the event a b-word. There were numerous violent tornadoes, thankfully they weren’t on the ground for hundreds of miles though.

4/3/74 and 4/27/11 are generational outbreaks for a reason, like the Superstorm of 93, everything has to lineup perfectly for events like that to take place.

That said, the people that got hit by tornadoes the past few days? That’s their April 27th.
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I will say this, this one was going to make a hell of an attempt, and is probably the closest we’ve seen modeled to one of those. But like you said, everything has to go perfect, and it didn’t yesterday
 
RollTide18 said:
I’d say the High Risk verified, just because there was no super outbreak or EF5s doesn’t make the event a b-word. There were numerous violent tornadoes, thankfully they weren’t on the ground for hundreds of miles though.

4/3/74 and 4/27/11 are generational outbreaks for a reason, like the Superstorm of 93, everything has to lineup perfectly for events like that to take place.

That said, the people that got hit by tornadoes the past few days? That’s their April 27th.
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I didn’t say it loudly much but I was not expecting 4/27. That is a very rare ceiling to meet and hope we never see a year like 2011 again. I was 50/50 for this event until the end, usually am! Lol. Been following outbreaks since I was a kid and I’m no expert but I have seen busts and also surprise outbreaks.
 
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