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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

TOA likely coming for parts of SW GA, SE AL and the Panhandle.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 219

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
 
Jason Mills said:
From what I have seen personally in Troy, there seems to be no damage to the hospital. Lights on and ambulances arriving. From the emergency crews present and some reports I have heard (I can't verify them), there is pretty significant damage to the gas station and restaurants across the highway. I didn't want to get any closer.

Power is out over significant sections of the city. I saw a lot of tree damage along Highway 87 headed south. This is probably the area where the tornado first touched down based on radar. Again, power was out and it's pitch black so I didn't venture too far south to avoid power lines.

There is apparently significant damage to the city recreation center. Video posted to Facebook shows fairly large sections of the roof are gone. There are also reports (I can't verify or vouch) of significant structural damage north of the city between Troy and Banks.
Click to expand...
I've kinda learned the reason the most significant night time tornado damage isn't discovered until morning is because high volumes of snapped trees are usually blocking road access to the area for several hours.
 
We're finally lining out over here. Still some elevated mesos but nothing of concern at present. Once these moves through I am going to sleep so hard. Tons of damaging wind reports from Paulding County, and I really think there probably was a brief tornado earlier near Dallas.
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Curious to see how these surveys turn out. The Springfield, MO office will be responsible for the final rating of Bakersfield, and they’re pretty conservative, so if there was true violent structural damage it might get underrated.

The Little Rock, AR office will be responsible for the Franklin and Diaz ratings. They used to be ridiculously conservative, but are more reasonable now following the retirement of John Robinson. Both of those have a solid chance at a violent rating.
 
Latest mesoanalysis continues to indicate a hot zone near SE AL, SW GA, and the FL Panhandle.

STP --

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Hodographs --

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0-1 KMH EHI --

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Conditional Probability of EF2+ Tornado --

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