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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

New MCD for Tornado Watches 45 and 46:

"
SUMMARY...The risk for tornadoes continues across northern MS into
northwestern AL, particularly with a supercell in Montgomery County.
Intense tornadoes (EF3+) are possible.

DISCUSSION...A QLCS has evolved into more discrete supercells, some
of which have become dominant relative to other convective elements
in the area. Some of these storms have a history of tornadoes, and a
supercell in Montgomery County, MS has a persistent mesocyclone that
continues to intensify per KDGX and KGWX NEXRAD data. The GWX VAD
shows an impressively large and curved hodograph, with nearly 500
m2/s2 effective SRH in just the surface-500 m layer, with about 1000
m2/s2 SRH in the sfc-3 km layer. As such, the ambient environment
supports intense tornadoes (EF3+). However, this is contingent on
storms benefiting from minimal interference by other nearby storms,
including the absorption of smaller storms. If one of the more
dominant storms (especially the Montgomery County storm) can obtain
a pristine inflow environment, the chance for intense tornado
development is high. Damaging gusts are possible, especially with
any linear segments that materialize.1000000635.png
 
MikeP said:
Yeah seems like the showers in W AL. are still having a hard time getting their act together...
Click to expand...
The orientation of those showers are doing the same thing as the smaller confluence bands in MS did earlier. They’re running off directly to the north instead of north and east. The deep layer shear vectors are probably more parallel than perpendicular
 
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