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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16
- Thread starter Bulkshear
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Amory/Monroe County finally warned. @JPWX
US_Highway15
Member
New MCD for Tornado Watches 45 and 46:
"
SUMMARY...The risk for tornadoes continues across northern MS into
northwestern AL, particularly with a supercell in Montgomery County.
Intense tornadoes (EF3+) are possible.
DISCUSSION...A QLCS has evolved into more discrete supercells, some
of which have become dominant relative to other convective elements
in the area. Some of these storms have a history of tornadoes, and a
supercell in Montgomery County, MS has a persistent mesocyclone that
continues to intensify per KDGX and KGWX NEXRAD data. The GWX VAD
shows an impressively large and curved hodograph, with nearly 500
m2/s2 effective SRH in just the surface-500 m layer, with about 1000
m2/s2 SRH in the sfc-3 km layer. As such, the ambient environment
supports intense tornadoes (EF3+). However, this is contingent on
storms benefiting from minimal interference by other nearby storms,
including the absorption of smaller storms. If one of the more
dominant storms (especially the Montgomery County storm) can obtain
a pristine inflow environment, the chance for intense tornado
development is high. Damaging gusts are possible, especially with
any linear segments that materialize.
"
SUMMARY...The risk for tornadoes continues across northern MS into
northwestern AL, particularly with a supercell in Montgomery County.
Intense tornadoes (EF3+) are possible.
DISCUSSION...A QLCS has evolved into more discrete supercells, some
of which have become dominant relative to other convective elements
in the area. Some of these storms have a history of tornadoes, and a
supercell in Montgomery County, MS has a persistent mesocyclone that
continues to intensify per KDGX and KGWX NEXRAD data. The GWX VAD
shows an impressively large and curved hodograph, with nearly 500
m2/s2 effective SRH in just the surface-500 m layer, with about 1000
m2/s2 SRH in the sfc-3 km layer. As such, the ambient environment
supports intense tornadoes (EF3+). However, this is contingent on
storms benefiting from minimal interference by other nearby storms,
including the absorption of smaller storms. If one of the more
dominant storms (especially the Montgomery County storm) can obtain
a pristine inflow environment, the chance for intense tornado
development is high. Damaging gusts are possible, especially with
any linear segments that materialize.
The orientation of those showers are doing the same thing as the smaller confluence bands in MS did earlier. They’re running off directly to the north instead of north and east. The deep layer shear vectors are probably more parallel than perpendicular
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Bulkshear
Member
Sun is out in middle TN! I smell trouble as the storms propagate NE into the state
hurricaneguy
Member
I'm hoping the forecasted storm potential over Alabama may be over enhanced based on current observations. Not nearly as primed as Mississippi yet.
OHWX97
Member
Back on the ground, doing damage south of Prentiss.
It took them long enough
Western_KS_Wx
Member
Debris ball has returned with the significant tornado west of Bassfield.
jiharris0220
Member
AJS
Member
Bassfield….
NorthBamaWX
Member
Tornado reported in Smithville Miss
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Is Jackson radar struggling for y'all? Says my most recent scan was 20 minutes ago.
Teche
Member
heading for Carson, MS
Attachments
Yes it's been lagging a bit.
Another potential tornadic storm moving near Tyler town.