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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Grand Poo Bah said:
I can absolutely see the rationale, and have no hard feelings. There have been several systems that haven't lived up to their forecasts in the last 12 months, and each time that happens public trust erodes just a little bit. The 60 STP that didn't verify on May 6th 2024, and the recency of the last underperforming system (March 3rd) are the biggest clap backs I'm getting while trying to spread the word about this system. Getting this wrong would put us even further in the hole. The catch 22 is now it pretty much requires stronger messaging to get past that apathy and dismissiveness.
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Just remember, there's what theologians call "invincible ignorance" in this context too. Just do your best.
 
Well, just getting caught up this morning. A very, very dangerous day is in store for the South. Georgia folks: this is the one to take seriously. I think we all know what to do, but others around us may not. Talk to your friends, your family and your co-workers and let them know what's going on. FFC is rightly calling for high confidence in a significant tornado risk across Western Georgia. Unlike what we're so-often used to, it looks increasingly likely that we will have a cluster of supercells that transitions to a broken line as it moves east of Atlanta. Values are about as high as you could expect to see for our area, and during the middle of the night, no less. I struggle to think of a good comparison for our area personally, but just know we're in for a rough night. My thoughts are with everyone on this board, and I hope for us to all make it through this safely together.
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025

At a glance:

- Buckle up. Things are set to get spicy on Saturday Night and
into Sunday.

- Generally quiet weather through the rest of the long term.

The long term picks up as our next severe weather event is set to go
down. All of the ingredients for a widespread outbreak across much
of the south east continues to come into alignment. The main threat
to our CWA will come late Saturday and into the overnight hours of
Sunday morning. An organized line with embedded supercells is
expected to emerge from the Mississippi river valley. Given a
screaming mid-level jet (100kts at 500mb), steep mid level lapse
rates (7.5C/KM) and moderate SBCAPE (~600J/KG) during the last hours
of the days we`re confident that the environment over North and
Central GA will support a potentially dangerous line of storms.

The main threat continues to be damaging winds and embedded
tornadoes. A few tornadoes could be significant, especially those
that form in the warm sector of AL in the late afternoon and early
evening. Western GA continues to be the primary area of concern,
though this particular line of storms will likely remain at or above
the severe threshold all the way through our CWA. Please plan in
advance for this event and have multiple ways to receive weather
information.

After the system moves through the long term becomes pretty quiet.
High temperatures are expected to be pleasantly in the mid 70s with
overnight lows in the mid 40s. A weak cold front on Thursday evening
may bring some scattered showers and possibly a rumble of thunder but
the dynamics for anything greater appear unlikely at this time.

Vaughn
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floop-hrrr-2025031412.refcmp_uh001h.us_se.gif1741962522827.png1741962549823.png1741962554815.png
 
Matt Grantham said:
The 12z HRRR has Cullman 2011 version 2.0 at 1 PM in Marion County. The forecast sounding just south of that cell is eye-popping.

The ceiling on this event is getting very very high now. With today's threat potentially being worthy of a High Risk, there is a nonzero chance the two day sequence ends up being a super outbreak.

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Wishing all of y'all the best of luck at the BMX office, and please stay safe out there!
 
Clancy said:
Well, just getting caught up this morning. A very, very dangerous day is in store for the South. Georgia folks: this is the one to take seriously. I think we all know what to do, but others around us may not. Talk to your friends, your family and your co-workers and let them know what's going on. FFC is rightly calling for high confidence in a significant tornado risk across Western Georgia. Unlike what we're so-often used to, it looks increasingly likely that we will have a cluster of supercells that transitions to a broken line as it moves east of Atlanta. Values are about as high as you could expect to see for our area, and during the middle of the night, no less. I struggle to think of a good comparison for our area personally, but just know we're in for a rough night. My thoughts are with everyone on this board, and I hope for us to all make it through this safely together.

View attachment 35466View attachment 35468View attachment 35469View attachment 35470
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You know things are getting serious when an AFD opens with "buckle up"!:eek:

Matt Grantham said:
The 12z HRRR has Cullman 2011 version 2.0 at 1 PM in Marion County. The forecast sounding just south of that cell is eye-popping.

The ceiling on this event is getting very very high now. With today's threat potentially being worthy of a High Risk, there is a nonzero chance the two day sequence ends up being a super outbreak.

View attachment 35473
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Looking at the omega values on that sounding makes me wonder if it's convectively contaminated. Can someone with better knowledge on that matter check to see if that would be accurate? Thanks.
 
The CIPS analogs has this piece of guidance I found interesting:

In parts of MS/AL, there is a 20% chance of FIVE or more long-tracked tornadoes within ~70 miles of a given point. That's an astonishing statistic to ever calculate. That speaks to not just the numbers we can expect, but the density -- this could be very tightly packed in MS and AL with long-track tornadoes.

1741963550833.png
 
Every time the HRRR runs it gives me the freaks!! Is there anything to mitigate this storm threat?? I’m very concerned for all in its path.. I have spent my day subbing at a high school informing everyone I can about a safety plan, and being weather aware Saturday nite. Some are already making/changing plans to be safe.. others it concerns me deeply when they say.. oh it’s just gonna be thunderstorms.. but what can I do.. plant the seed.. if they think I’m a nut for warning them how to be safe.. so be it.. I’m subbing/teaching a math class today.. but I am taking time to tell them about the potential Saturday night and how to be safe, because I definitely want to see them next Friday when I sub for the same teacher.
 
Tennie said:
Looking at the omega values on that sounding makes me wonder if it's convectively contaminated. Can someone with better knowledge on that matter check to see if that would be accurate? Thanks.
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I noticed the contamination as well, but I’m pretty sure that you could pull scarier soundings out of this setup from other areas that have little to no contamination.
 
Tennie said:
You know things are getting serious when an AFD opens with "buckle up"!:eek:


Looking at the omega values on that sounding makes me wonder if it's convectively contaminated. Can someone with better knowledge on that matter check to see if that would be accurate? Thanks.
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In my opinion, I would trust Matt’s judgement on that particular sounding. Now if any Tom, Dick, or Harry posted it, sure,
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
Every time the HRRR runs it gives me the freaks!! Is there anything to mitigate this storm threat?? I’m very concerned for all in its path.. I have spent my day subbing at a high school informing everyone I can about a safety plan, and being weather aware Saturday nite. Some are already making/changing plans to be safe.. others it concerns me deeply when they say.. oh it’s just gonna be thunderstorms.. but what can I do.. plant the seed.. if they think I’m a nut for warning them how to be safe.. so be it.. I’m subbing/teaching a math class today.. but I am taking time to tell them about the potential Saturday night and how to be safe, because I definitely want to see them next Friday when I sub for the same teacher.
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From everything the models have thrown out, and based on environment analysis, the only real saving grace for West GA in particular will be that it's happening after dark. That said, there will likely be no shortage of instability like we typically see.
 
Matt Grantham said:
The 12z HRRR has Cullman 2011 version 2.0 at 1 PM in Marion County. The forecast sounding just south of that cell is eye-popping.

The ceiling on this event is getting very very high now. With today's threat potentially being worthy of a High Risk, there is a nonzero chance the two day sequence ends up being a super outbreak.

View attachment 35473
View attachment 35474
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If that cell in Marion County slides 25 or so miles to the southeast it would devastate my hometown.
 
Clancy said:
From everything the models have thrown out, and based on environment analysis, the only real saving grace for West GA in particular will be that it's happening after dark. That said, there will likely be no shortage of instability like we typically see.
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Just warned my sister who lives in northern Georgia. Wasn’t even aware of the possibility of storms until now. Praying for everybody still.
 
Tennie said:
You know things are getting serious when an AFD opens with "buckle up"!:eek:


Looking at the omega values on that sounding makes me wonder if it's convectively contaminated. Can someone with better knowledge on that matter check to see if that would be accurate? Thanks.
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Whether or not it is doesn't really matter at this point. You can find any point in the strongest risk that will pull a sounding similar to this. And not all of them will be contaminated.
 
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