Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

I'm surprised at no mention of a possible upgrade, but the wording tells me everything I need to know.

yeah

 

[Brice W]

That wording almost guarantees an update will be happening sometime.

 

[Kds86z]

I’ve never seen any wording like that before.

I have but yeah it’s not often .no violent word yet .. but

 

[tornado examiner]

High end is a term for violent tornadoes

 

[SmokeEater]

Jesus, multiple long track, high end tornadoes will be possible... I don't think I've ever seen that in an outlook before that wasn't 4/27.

 

[Kds86z]

High end is a term for violent tornadoes

Yeah. True..

 

[Brice W]

Wouldn't want to cry wolf....

He means the wording is telling him there most likely will be a high risk

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

I have but yeah it’s not often .no violent word yet .. but

Well saying multiple high-end tornadoes certainly points in that direction.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

He means the wording is telling him there most likely will be a high risk

yup

 

[MMWX]

Weird NAM3K run, as well as small model differences and uncertainty around how the morning round will effect the afternoon environment are probably what kept it at MDT for now.

 

[VolRunner393]

Seeing the Central valley in East TN (Knoxville area) being in an Enhanced Risk with a 10% hatched tornado threat from the SPC, then looking at the local 8 news saying that the tornado threat is very low is absolutely maddening.

 

[SmokeEater]

Honestly, I wouldn't worry about high risk, no high risk, no violent, etc. That's one of the strongest worded day 2's I've ever seen. The word is out there.

 

[MMWX]

Seeing the Central valley in East TN (Knoxville area) being in an Enhanced Risk with a 10% hatched tornado threat from the SPC, then looking at the local 8 news saying that the tornado threat is very low is absolutely maddening.

No news station wants to cry wolf but you also can't be too conservative. There is a fine line to balance.

 

[Kds86z]

Honestly, I wouldn't worry about high risk, no high risk, no violent, etc. That's one of the strongest worded day 2's I've ever seen. The word is out there.

I need to go back and read 4/27 outlooks

 

[VolRunner393]

No news station wants to cry wolf but you also can't be too conservative. There is a fine line to balance.

They are the most conservative news station in East TN when it comes to severe weather. While other stations have mentioned the possibility of a few isolated tornadoes, WVLT has definitely downplayed the tornado risk and the overall storm risk.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

He means the wording is telling him there most likely will be a high risk

I'm not sure hinting at an upgraded risk is the clear messaging we need right now. If 50% of analogs are producing 2 or more significant tornadoes, statistically, there is a high risk for significant tornadoes.

I personally feel they're so worried about overhyping, they might be tipping the scales into underselling it a bit. I don't want to derail, so i'll just leave it at that.

Edit: changed some wording

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

bruh the href thing did the thing

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

I think tomorrow if there are violent tornadoes they will likely be rope or cone like. There is a pretty good spread for temperature and dewpoint tomorrow.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

I can absolutely see the rationale, and have no hard feelings. There have been several systems that haven't lived up to their forecasts in the last 12 months, and each time that happens public trust erodes just a little bit. The 60 STP that didn't verify on May 6th 2024, and the recency of the last underperforming system (March 3rd) are the biggest clap backs I'm getting while trying to spread the word about this system. Getting this wrong would put us even further in the hole. The catch 22 is now it pretty much requires stronger messaging to get past that apathy and dismissiveness.

 

[KCweatherboy]

Wow, I went from barely in the marginal tomorrow to enhanced. I guess that means they're expecting convection to fire earlier than previously thought which might put some early supercells in my backyard.