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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

aujerm said:
As a resident of north Forsyth county for the last 15 years, I don’t believe we’ve had any significant tornadoes in North Central GA in some time. I believe there was an f3/f4 that went through North Dawson county/Dahlonega back during the Palm Sunday outbreak in 1994. Have there been any strong/significant tornadoes since then?
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It’s been a minute for North GA. Forsyth has escaped some of the bigger outbreaks from 1884-1994 too.
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Think most tornadoes are damaging lol . But seriously looking bad
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It's SPC-speak for strong-violent tornadoes. If I remember correctly the original lead-in to a PDS tornado watch said "Damaging tornadoes...large hail...etc, etc are possible in these areas" instead of just "Tornadoes..." More recently the word has been changed to "Destructive," with the same meaning.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Can't wait to see the pretty purple colors on the supercell composite over alabama when the NAM gets into range lol.
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barney-maracas.gif
 
CheeselandSkies said:
It's SPC-speak for strong-violent tornadoes. If I remember correctly the original lead-in to a PDS tornado watch said "Damaging tornadoes...large hail...etc, etc are possible in these areas" instead of just "Tornadoes..." More recently the word has been changed to "Destructive," with the same meaning.
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them using "damaging" for tornadoes at the D5 range is a tad alarming
 
CheeselandSkies said:
It's SPC-speak for strong-violent tornadoes. If I remember correctly the original lead-in to a PDS tornado watch said "Damaging tornadoes...large hail...etc, etc are possible in these areas" instead of just "Tornadoes..." More recently the word has been changed to "Destructive," with the same meaning.
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Just trying out little humor. Trust me I know
 
I gotta remember to get new wiper blades if I'm going to do any local chasing/spotting, I feel like that's a thing my vehicle should have on a day like Saturday haha

Though with home territory under dire threat, it also feels like a day I need to stay close to home to ensure that people I usually keep informed on really bad days can be updated frequently
 
I've got nothing to say but "wow." Can't stress this enough: Georgia folks have got to pay attention to this. Ingredients coming together for one of the state's most potent severe setups in recent memory. Assess your preparedness. Patch up your emergency kits. Check the batteries on your weather radio. Reach out to loved ones and let them know to be weather-aware. 06Z GFS improved overnight thermos even more across parts of AL and GA. SRH is assuredly bonkers over northern Georgia.
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jiharris0220 said:
I’m gonna keep it a buck 50 with you guys.

Saturday looks like a greater substantial threat than Friday by an order of magnitude.

Firstly, far more agreement between global models, the CMC and AI Euro also have the same scenario.
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The broad troughing to the southwest of the surface low creates enough height falls to generate a weak vort max in the PBL. This weak vort max causes a very strong LLJ by Saturday afternoon. Combine this with the enhanced moist air advection from the present surface low, then you have dew points in the high 60s to 70s. What you have is the very rare scenario of having a strong LLJ directly overlapping high cape by the afternoon hours.
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This sounding in central Mississippi is the result product of such a thing. You guys know what most of these parameters mean so nothing needs to said about these numbers other than they’re what create significant tornado outbreaks.

But look at the depth of that effective inflow layer along with the highly streamwise vertical wind profile in the PBL, this is the setup that causes supercells to become tornadic quickly.

The upper level jet can be marked out here, and it’s almost perpendicular to the PBL flow, which is prime for discrete storm mode development.

Also, look at the vertical temp/dew point profile, pretty much completely moist from top to bottom up to the EL.
Notice the inversion layer, it’s weak enough to allow any remotely powerful updrafts though and go to town while strong enough to deny crapvection.

And if you guys noticed earlier looking at the 500mb vorticity, you’ll realize this trough setup has forcing that’s weak enough to not generate a messy storm mode, but strong enough for plentiful convection to actually occur in the OWS.
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This is honestly making me feel a little dreadful, hopefully things downtrend from here.
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That sounding is…something alright. Yikes.
 
Clancy said:
I've got nothing to say but "wow." Can't stress this enough: Georgia folks have got to pay attention to this. Ingredients coming together for one of the state's most potent severe setups in recent memory. Assess your preparedness. Patch up your emergency kits. Check the batteries on your weather radio. Reach out to loved ones and let them know to be weather-aware. 06Z GFS improved overnight thermos even more across parts of AL and GA. SRH is assuredly bonkers over northern Georgia.
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I have hated the fact that the risk outlines are creeping northward. There’s some hatched risk on the CSU MLP going as far north as central Ohio… I’m not used to significant severe weather, I’ve only experienced 2 weak tornadoes impact me in some way, and a very intense derecho in June 2012. If this trend continues, I guess I gotta start thinking about it myself
 
Clancy said:
I've got nothing to say but "wow." Can't stress this enough: Georgia folks have got to pay attention to this. Ingredients coming together for one of the state's most potent severe setups in recent memory. Assess your preparedness. Patch up your emergency kits. Check the batteries on your weather radio. Reach out to loved ones and let them know to be weather-aware. 06Z GFS improved overnight thermos even more across parts of AL and GA. SRH is assuredly bonkers over northern Georgia.
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it's interesting that the CSU machine learning model has been suggesting possible severe weather as far north as the ohio river for a couple of days now. certainly intrigued to see how things are this far north on saturday.
 
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