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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

Euro 12Z is following the GFS in the northward moisture advection into the Midwest on Friday. However, it diverges overnight and has 60s dew points covering all of LA, MS, and almost all of Alabama. Plus a tongue of moisture up into western Tennessee.

It actually keeps that warm sector over Dixie hanging around through Saturday night and even expands it northward into Kentucky at 00z.
 
Looks like the euro holds serve on moisture for Fridays event with 60 degree dew points extending to KY ahead of the front.

Edit: To Coldfront’s point, there does seem to be a bit less advection farther west with 60 degree dewpoints failing to reach Missouri.
 
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Low 50s could get it done with decent depth and not ridiculous LCLs given temps remaining in the 60s, the problem the GFS soundings are showing is the atmosphere may remain capped at those temperatures. Definitely not as impressed as I was 36 hours ago, but not discounting Friday entirely just yet after what I've seen seemingly extremely marginal moisture do in this region in the early season in recent years.
 
Clancy said:
Euro has secondary low.
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I was looking at the surface map first and was like there’s no way the warm sector stays like this without a secondary low somewhere and there it was!

I’m interested to see now where the Euro goes next run. GFS had the secondary low yesterday but then slowed the lead wave down which kind of fouled up Friday and Saturday. Let’s see if the Euro is forging its own path or is just playing catch up.
 
warneagle said:
Begun the model wars have
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star wars GIF
 
Generally positive trends once again... GFS has obviously been most aggressive with the moisture decrease though ECM and UKMET on Saturday have shown decreases in northward extent still. GFS also backed off Saturday and if I am completely honest most models bar the UKMET don't show anything to the extent of the GFS runs yesterday which were approaching High Risk level. All in all I'm feeling a lot less worried today then I was 36 hours ago.

trend-gfs-2025031012-f108.sfctd_b-imp.conus.giftrend-ecmwf_full-2025031012-f108.sfctd_b-imp.conus.gif

Having said that, plenty changes at 110-130 hours out, especially for convective events. It's almost a given we see at least one further change in the trough and surface evolution that has a significant impact on the forecast, the question is whether that increases severe threat or decreases/maintains. Is this a bit of a model blip with an impending uptrend or not? Hard to say, and obviously needs close watching no matter what. Current output would still be a dangerous event, especially for AR into MS overnight Friday.
 
UK_EF4 said:
Generally positive trends once again... GFS has obviously been most aggressive with the moisture decrease though ECM and UKMET on Saturday have shown decreases in northward extent still. GFS also backed off Saturday and if I am completely honest most models bar the UKMET don't show anything to the extent of the GFS runs yesterday which were approaching High Risk level. All in all I'm feeling a lot less worried today then I was 36 hours ago.

View attachment 34906View attachment 34907

Having said that, plenty changes at 110-130 hours out, especially for convective events. It's almost a given we see at least one further change in the trough and surface evolution that has a significant impact on the forecast, the question is whether that increases severe threat or decreases/maintains. Is this a bit of a model blip with an impending uptrend or not? Hard to say, and obviously needs close watching no matter what. Current output would still be a dangerous event, especially for AR into MS overnight Friday.
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So pretty much like most of these events go. Alot of hysteria at the first group of models far out from the time of the event, slowly walked down hour by hour until there really isn't much to it?
 
KevinH said:
So wait.. I remember people saying that what happens depends on the second wave?/low? Is that no longer the case now and not going to matter (as of right now?).
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The Caliber of the Saturday outbreak will depend on the second wave. You'll probably still see numerous severe storms without it. The higher end tornado caliber will be dependent on that second wave/secondary low.
 
I am in the room with people who think April is going to be when we start to see activity pick up. I'm just not a fan of these moisture stricken troughs this time of year. That first wave really kills the Northern extent of the moisture in this setup.
 
Tanner said:
I am in the room with people who think April is going to be when we start to see activity pick up. I'm just not a fan of these moisture stricken troughs this time of year. That first wave really kills the Northern extent of the moisture in this setup.
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It’s not even a close comparison, but we didn’t reallly pick up last year until the end of April. We had a few busts and the surprise outbreak in Indiana/Ohio but things didn’t get crazy until the end of the month
 
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