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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

tennessee storm chaser said:
Definitely seems to be on an island d for sure … figure the gfs start to cave In To the gfs. What’s. New
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Will have to see if the Euro keeps blazing ahead or gets on board with the GFS. This has definetly been a downtrend for a few runs now on Friday’s threat since it keeps moisture from reaching inland and shuts off instability.

Saturday looks a little odd too now. You get the warm sector into Dixie but the wind profiles in Alabama until the trough flows through are… meager. I really don’t know if the GFS is a dog that’s off the trail or it’s on the scent of something.
 
Verbatim, 12Z GFS suggests potential for a complex, multi-round severe event for MS/AL/GA into parts of the Carolinas.
1741623204020.png
 
Dynamics can sometimes wane as the main low pressure lifts to the northeast, but in the case of the GFS, it also has a secondary low forming waaaay down south.
1741623534205.png
 
Parker Copeland said:
tbf, gfs has been known to do this with events, watch it uptrends like hell in a day or 2
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I wouldn’t be so sure on that. I would point to last system as an example. If the Euro & UK keep disagreeing then that may occur, which they already did on 0z’s run. But if they start getting on board as well then like I said, the GFS may be on to something.

This could just be an outlier run too, I’d like to see how the ensemble are portraying this run.

Not saying this threat is dead by any means, but the 12Z does paint some glaring issues.
 
12z GFS/CMC are basically non events on Friday and struggling for anything meaningful on Saturday. Might be turning into a North American vs. European model suite situation here.
 
ColdFront said:
I wouldn’t be so sure on that. I would point to last system as an example. If the Euro & UK keep disagreeing then that may occur, which they already did on 0z’s run. But if they start getting on board as well then like I said, the GFS may be on to something.

This could just be an outlier run too, I’d like to see how the ensemble are portraying this run.

Not saying this threat is dead by any means, but the 12Z does paint some glaring issues.
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yeah, we also need to transition to cams when they all get in range since gfs is mainly a longer range run, the closer you get it kinda falls off, def watch for trends with other models, but if that's not the case then we can assume the run is either an outlier or just simply getting too close to the event to be accurately used
 
I'm really impressed by how many of you are basing this weekend on each model run instead of looking at the full picture.
 
JPWX said:
I'm really impressed by how many of you are basing this weekend on each model run instead of looking at the full picture.
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Why wouldn’t you see which ways the models are trending? If the 0Z GFS was a one off then yeah, absolutely. As Andy alluded to, it’s now a North America vs Europe model showdown. I don’t know why that’s controversial to look and see what each model run is portraying when it could give a good idea that the full picture is changing.

No one declared it dead. Just that there are more flies in the ointment now than say yesterday.
 
Having to deal with uncertainties regarding the lead wave is annoying; sometimes we overperform the GFS expectations of moisture return but if it turns into a waiting for Saturday morning surface observations kind of situation, this will be a long week
 
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