Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

[MichelleH]

CSU ML probabilities jumped significantly for Saturday
View attachment 34859

Oh fun. I'm in the bullseye.

 

[Justin Hindman]

Oh fun. I'm in the bullseye.

It's 6 days out, it will change. I am waiting for Thursday to start calling a historic day.

 

[KevinH]

It's 6 days out, it will change. I am waiting for Thursday to start calling a historic day.

Not a bad idea…..

Maybe Wednesday if the models keep agreeing the way they have been, or agree about even more things between now and then.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

06z euro is nasty for the south, still isn't on board with a secondary low

 

[JPWX]

Bottom line is a significant and/or major severe weather/tornado outbreak is still on table between Friday through early Sunday.

 

[ColdFront]

This is a fascinating system as each wave will impact the contours and locations of the other. From the lead wave on the 12th, to the Friday system, and then Saturday’s potential ceiling/floor depending on how Friday evolved.

 

[Ledian]

BIL's family is having a wedding in Columbus on the 15th. *sigh*

 

[MichelleH]

BIL's family is having a wedding in Columbus on the 15th. *sigh*

Hopefully, the storms will be after the wedding and reception.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Bottom line is a significant and/or major severe weather/tornado outbreak is still on table between Friday through early Sunday.

Correct, its not going take a secondary slp to develop to get a outbreak of severe wx.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Correct, its not going take a secondary slp to develop to get a outbreak of severe wx.

Yep, but it'll likely make it higher end threat in Mississippi and Alabama if it does

 

[Clancy]

CIPS values are about as high as I can think of in recent memory; as the event comes into the view of a single operational time frame, they will probably look even higher. I still have questions about trough evolution, but I'm concerned about the possibility of the development of a compact LLJ overlapping convection late Saturday afternoon into the evening hours.

 

[Clancy]

Should've put it in my previous post, but GEFS values are also trending higher, especially for Saturday. They've also been a bit more consistently confident about a relatively continuous belt of energy related to trough ejection compared to their operational counterpart.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

CIPS values are about as high as I can think of in recent memory; as the event comes into the view of a single operational time frame, they will probably look even higher. I still have questions about trough evolution, but I'm concerned about the possibility of the development of a compact LLJ overlapping convection late Saturday afternoon into the evening hours.
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You can see the streaks on reflectivity with that last image. Wow!

 

[TVILLE96]

Does this have the potential to become a PDS ,or is it currently far from it?

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Does this have the potential to become a PDS ,or is it currently far from it?

As far as I know, the "PDS" tag is reserved for certain watch/warning products, so it's really a judgment call by the forecaster once the event is imminent or underway.


Given the pattern as currently modeled, I could see the environment becoming supportive of some higher-end severe weather that might warrant a PDS designation, but it's far too early to make that call.

 

[Equus]

The legendary mythical Deep South Event Actually During Daylight Hours? Let's please lock that in, quite eager to have the bulk of the event sometime that's not midnight

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

Should've put it in my previous post, but GEFS values are also trending higher, especially for Saturday. They've also been a bit more consistently confident about a relatively continuous belt of energy related to trough ejection compared to their operational counterpart.
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Looks like the Ohio Valley's coming into play.

 

[ColdFront]

12Z GFS slowing the lead wave down like the 0Z and keeping quality moisture confined to the very south of the coastal states on Friday.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

12Z GFS slowing the lead wave down like the 0Z and keeping quality moisture confined to the very south of the coastal states on Friday.

Definitely seems to be on an island for sure … figure the gfs start to cave In To the euro What’s. New

 

[Clancy]

Worth noting that the Midwest can have events with more marginal moisture compared to the Deep South, but 12Z would keep this concentrated on the central Gulf Coast. Still very concerned about Saturday.