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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 3/14-3/16

KevinH said:
What are confluence bands?
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boundaries where low-level winds converge, which creates a rising motion and can serve as a focal point for storms in the absence of strong forcing for ascent; you often see them in the higher-end supercellular events in the south where you don't have a strongly-forced QLCS.
 
Confluence bands are elongated zones where low-level winds converge, enhancing moisture transport and lift. These bands often serve as focal points for storm initiation, helping supercells develop by strengthening low-level wind shear and increasing storm-relative helicity. Positioned ahead of cold fronts or drylines, they can augment tornado potential by organizing storm activity in a highly sheared, unstable environment.
 
NAM fell asleep at the wheel for several hours and then spawned a few supercells from those confluence bands near the AL/GA border at like 3 AM.
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I think we have to assume the NAM is just having trouble initiating convection on the 3k version. The soundings are still bonkers and the little scattered showers it's showing, with the sounding environments, should have quite a few supercells likely. The HRRR is probably closer to correct, but let's wait and see.
 
For Friday, I can see the Level 4 Moderate being expanded southward as well as the Significant TOR, Wind, and Hail Probabilities as @tennessee storm chaser has hinted at.

Friday night's convection is the biggest question mark as I mentioned earlier. While I can see SPC going Day 2 High for Saturday, I get the feeling that they'll hold off due to the question mark for overnight Friday. I agree with @Clancy about the HRRR being the better one off the NAM runs with the exception for that MCS. That doesn't make sense.
 
tornado examiner said:
Maybe the second day 2 outlook if things straighten out.
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There's already a precedent for that: the D2 High for 4/7/2006 first came out on one of the later D2 updates.

Of course, whether (let alone when) the SPC decides to pull the trigger on a 5/5 High is ultimately up to them to decide. We shall wait and see...
 
The hrrr initiates morning convection because it models a extremely weak to non existent EML, and obviously given the abundant moisture and instability plus the forcing in the area.

It actually makes plenty of sense that it does this, although it seems to matter less than a dead cockroach in the corner.
 
I really dont know what to make of the morning convection in Alabama, but i do know this:

I've been watching westher for over 30 years in Alabama, I dont remever a time, in mid March when a complex of tstorms moved north quick enough and allowed the atmosphere to recover so quickly...I can remember several times when this happened and the armosohere wasn't able to recharge.
Also, it's the nam and hrrr, one model that doesn't forecast supercells well and the other is at the very end of its range.

However, given the dynamics at play here, there wil be surprises and I am pretty sure something significant is going to happen.
 
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